tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-84864777187644004972023-11-16T07:19:22.194+01:00ChinaphiliaBlog di approfondimento sulla geopolitica della Cina a cura di Giorgio CuscitoGiorgio Cuscitohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14965827718771456940noreply@blogger.comBlogger93125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8486477718764400497.post-30925694144431828172016-05-31T10:03:00.002+02:002016-05-31T23:59:00.518+02:00Nuovo nome, nuovo sito: ecco China Geopolitics!<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">
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<span style="font-size: large;"><b>Chinaphilia va in pensione per far spazio a <a href="https://chinageopolitics.wordpress.com/" target="_blank">China Geopolitics</a>!</b></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Chinaphilia, il mio vecchio blog, è andato in “pensione” per far largo a <a href="https://chinageopolitics.wordpress.com/" target="_blank"><b>China Geopolitics</b></a>, che ora si trova sulla piattaforma wordpress. </span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Il layout è completamente nuovo, più intuitivo e leggibile.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">L'obiettivo è sempre lo stesso: analizzare la geopolitica della Cina.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">CLICCA QUI PER ANDARE AL NUOVO BLOG: <a href="https://chinageopolitics.wordpress.com/">https://chinageopolitics.wordpress.com</a></span></div>
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<br />Giorgio Cuscitohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14965827718771456940noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8486477718764400497.post-86237187276625844992016-05-27T15:27:00.000+02:002016-05-27T15:29:15.296+02:00Le dichiarazioni di Xi sul budget delle Forze armate cinesi<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj4yrd41wpiUKi0qk3128ddiakFNvOSzZCAKpRmD6jvZVJQi95LDkDYwAdsojYi-SQ8X_vaE3lvVi7PW60x6zu1g-bcDnyouYa5yIvFloi9bgm9TsK7BKbhLCFuwnbl59sse1OUcMeaANI/s1600/%25D0%259F%25D0%25B0%25D1%2580%25D0%25B0%25D0%25B4_%25D0%25B2_%25D1%2587%25D0%25B5%25D1%2581%25D1%2582%25D1%258C_70-%25D0%25BB%25D0%25B5%25D1%2582%25D0%25B8%25D1%258F_%25D0%2592%25D0%25B5%25D0%25BB%25D0%25B8%25D0%25BA%25D0%25BE%25D0%25B8%25CC%2586_%25D0%259F%25D0%25BE%25D0%25B1%25D0%25B5%25D0%25B4%25D1%258B_-_40.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="393" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj4yrd41wpiUKi0qk3128ddiakFNvOSzZCAKpRmD6jvZVJQi95LDkDYwAdsojYi-SQ8X_vaE3lvVi7PW60x6zu1g-bcDnyouYa5yIvFloi9bgm9TsK7BKbhLCFuwnbl59sse1OUcMeaANI/s640/%25D0%259F%25D0%25B0%25D1%2580%25D0%25B0%25D0%25B4_%25D0%25B2_%25D1%2587%25D0%25B5%25D1%2581%25D1%2582%25D1%258C_70-%25D0%25BB%25D0%25B5%25D1%2582%25D0%25B8%25D1%258F_%25D0%2592%25D0%25B5%25D0%25BB%25D0%25B8%25D0%25BA%25D0%25BE%25D0%25B8%25CC%2586_%25D0%259F%25D0%25BE%25D0%25B1%25D0%25B5%25D0%25B4%25D1%258B_-_40.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/People%27s_Liberation_Army#/media/File:Парад_в_честь_70-летия_Великой_Победы_-_40.jpg</td></tr>
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Il mio commento per <a href="http://www.limesonline.com/maro-girone-rientra-italia-india-corte-suprema-mondo-notizie-oggi/91915#cnt3" target="_blank">Limes</a>.<br />
<br />
Nel <a href="http://www.81.cn/jwgz/2016-05/24/content_7068623.htm">secondo</a> di
una serie di articoli dedicati alla prospettiva di <a href="http://www.limesonline.com/protagonisti/xi-jinping">Xi Jinping</a> sulla
riforma in corso dell’Esercito popolare di liberazione (Epl), il presidente cinese ha
messo in chiaro che a causa del rallentamento economico “non è facile
assicurare al budget militare una crescita normale”.<br />
<a name='more'></a><o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
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Come annunciato a marzo, nel 2016 il bilancio sarà pari
a 146 miliardi di dollari. Si tratta di un <a href="http://news.xinhuanet.com/mil/2016-03/05/c_128775856.htm">incremento del
7.6%</a> rispetto all’anno scorso, ma è la percentuale più bassa dal
2010. Basti pensare che nel 2015 il budget era cresciuto del 10.1%. La
frenata è conseguente a quella del tasso di crescita del pil, che quest’anno
dovrebbe oscillare tra il 6.5% e il 7%.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
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Il rallentamento dell’economia cinese rappresenta senza
dubbio un ostacolo in più nella già lunga marcia iniziata da Pechino per
diventare una potenza marittima e colmare il gap che separa il suo apparato
bellico da quello di Washington, nettamente più avanti in termini di tecnologie
e <a href="https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=http-3A__books.sipri.org_files_FS_SIPRIFS1604.pdf&d=CwMFaQ&c=tUIXUh5BJuGeCwZVj7ChnbhB_cIdD6lQgMfidODHLEk&r=8ttJZ1GHeOrGX75V5mpCaqETQMleZb89WJEg4Ni4kjM&m=ql-aPrht0zhbMoUItCPi92EBJzct3oTlcr7wAw0VOXc&s=fa20I6WbywL8WuSu2FIDSjoPb6WR61AjKVkJlrvbbwU&e=">investimenti</a>.<o:p></o:p></div>
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Xi ha sottolineato che le finanze a disposizione dell’Epl
non sono state ben amministrate e questo ha generato degli sprechi. Secondo Xu
Guangyu, un ex generale cinese <a href="http://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy-defence/article/1953424/pla-budget-growth-slow-due-downturn-according-xi">intervistato</a> dal <i>South
China Morning Post</i>, l’affermazione potrebbe far riferimento allo scarso
coordinamento tra le varie branche delle Forze armate nella costruzione delle
infrastrutture.<o:p></o:p></div>
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In tal senso, la riforma lanciata dal presidente (abbinata
alla <a href="http://www.limesonline.com/cina-xi-jinping-mao-culto-personalita-media-potere/91258">campagna
anticorruzione</a> da lui voluta) dovrebbe rendere più efficiente e
moderno l’Epl. Questo, secondo Xi, deve elevare le sue capacità di combattimento,
prestare maggiore attenzione all’innovazione, alla costruzione delle Forze
armate e migliorare l’integrazione tra apparato civile e militare. Elementi
fondamentali affinché le branche dell’Epl possano condurre esercitazioni
congiunte.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
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Per approfondire: <a href="http://www.limesonline.com/meno-esercito-piu-xi-la-riforma-delle-forze-armate-in-cina/89741">La
riforma delle Forze Armate in Cina</a>| <a href="http://www.limesonline.com/le-9-sfide-della-cina-di-xi-nel-2016/88839">Le
9 sfide della Cina nel 2016</a><o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
<!--EndFragment-->Giorgio Cuscitohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14965827718771456940noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8486477718764400497.post-82709621153592166112016-05-26T12:02:00.004+02:002016-05-26T12:02:39.038+02:00Le proteste degli studenti migranti in Cina <div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: large;">Il mio commento per <a href="http://www.limesonline.com/grecia-eurogruppo-aiuti-ristrutturazione-debito-fmi-mondo-notizie-oggi/91883#cnt4" target="_blank">la rassegna di Limes</a>. </span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: large;">In Cina l’accesso all’università è legato alla registrazione di residenza (hukou).
Significa che queste offrono più posti agli studenti registrati nella provincia in cui hanno sede. Generalmente quelli non registrati devono ottenere punteggi più elevati rispetto agli altri per entrare. </span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhKIVont-naO0Rd7Fy1xXYf9BrmkOVDeY5Vrcfb4RYDI6J6UEsKfh20fZ84UaC53x6ODS_jWXWa6AqRWm4iAtuuUpziqFuJ8wqeoQP3NvQtDk5x_7R12cI96rhverwTATQiagPkiefw3Eo/s1600/5e41ecf7-a35e-439d-8130-4330021aeb88.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhKIVont-naO0Rd7Fy1xXYf9BrmkOVDeY5Vrcfb4RYDI6J6UEsKfh20fZ84UaC53x6ODS_jWXWa6AqRWm4iAtuuUpziqFuJ8wqeoQP3NvQtDk5x_7R12cI96rhverwTATQiagPkiefw3Eo/s640/5e41ecf7-a35e-439d-8130-4330021aeb88.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Fonte: http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/6a6c8b18-20be-11e6-aa98-db1e01fabc0c.html#axzz49kMHJk3E</td></tr>
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<a name='more'></a><span style="font-size: large;">Ciò non consente alla maggior parte di loro l’accesso alle università prestigiose, che si trovano nelle grandi città. Allo stesso tempo, gli studenti nelle provincie più numerose competono per meno posti. </span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;">Secondo i manifestanti, il nuovo provvedimento con cui il ministero dell’Istruzione ha ordinato di ridurre le quote assegnate in base all’hukou non garantirà equilibrio tra gli interessi delle varie amministrazioni. Chi protesta <a href="http://www.scmp.com/news/china/policies-politics/article/1945104/thousands-chinese-parents-take-streets-protest" target="_blank">sostiene</a> che le università di Pechino e Shanghai offriranno ai giovani privi del loro hukou una percentuale inferiore di accessi rispetto a quella che invece dovranno garantire a questa categoria di studenti le provincie più grandi. </span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Si pensi allo Hebei (uno dei luoghi delle proteste), che con Pechino e Tianjin formerà <a href="http://www.limesonline.com/jing-jin-ji-la-megalopoli-progettata-dalla-cina/91676" target="_blank">Jing-Jin-Ji</a>, una megalopoli da 130 milioni di abitanti. Tra gli obiettivi di tale progetto vi è il trasferimento di alcune attività non essenziali fuori dalla capitale per ridurre la densità demografica, l’inquinamento, il traffico e i prezzi del mercato immobiliare. </span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">È probabile che aumentando la quota di studenti non appartenenti alla provincia il governo centrale voglia facilitare lo spostamento dei residenti a Pechino e Tianjin verso la periferia e ridurre il flusso migratorio inverso. Trasformando la capitale in un centro di eccellenza per pochi e riducendo su di essa la pressione demografica.
Data la sensibilità dell’argomento, questo trend può senz’altro generare nuove proteste in futuro.</span></div>
Giorgio Cuscitohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14965827718771456940noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8486477718764400497.post-20205960517946331342016-05-25T15:15:00.003+02:002016-05-25T15:15:53.220+02:00Il senso della Cina per il nucleare: energia pulita, ascesa militare e Corea del Nord<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-size: large;">La mia analisi per Aspenia. La <a href="http://www.aspeninstitute.it/aspenia-online/article/il-senso-della-cina-il-nucleare-energia-pulita-ascesa-militare-e-corea-del-nord" target="_blank">versione originale</a> si trova in un dossier ad hoc sul nucleare (sicurezza ed energia) in Asia. Per continuare a leggere clicca sotto. </span></span><br />
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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Fonte: https://www.chinadialogue.net/article/show/single/en/8911-China-s-nuclear-exports-may-struggle-to-find-a-market</span></td></tr>
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<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;">La Cina è - insieme a Stati Uniti, Russia, Regno Unito e Francia - uno degli Stati “nucleari” riconosciuti dal Trattato di non proliferazione in vigore dal 1970; aderisce dunque formalmente ai suoi tre principi: disarmo progressivo, non proliferazione e uso pacifico del nucleare. Nelle strategie di politica interna ed estera di Pechino, l’energia atomica per uso sia civile sia militare riveste comunque un ruolo primario.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;">Da un lato Pechino cerca infatti di arginare il problema dell’inquinamento puntando su energie più “pulite”, tra cui proprio il nucleare. Dall’altro, in campo militare, sviluppa nuove tecnologie per migliorare la sua capacità di deterrenza. È proprio quest’attività a sollevare la preoccupazione degli Stati Uniti, principale antagonista della Cina.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;">Washington e Pechino sembrano però trovare un punto d’incontro sulla necessità di limitare le aspirazioni della Corea del Nord di Kim Jong-un. I suoi recenti test nucleari (nel gennaio 2016, per la quarta volta nell’arco di dieci anni di test) hanno aumentato la tensione nel quadrante Asia-Pacifico e spinto la Cina ad approvare sanzioni economiche contro Pyongyang all’ONU. Eppure, Pechino non può fare a meno del suo alleato coreano.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;">La Cina, il paese più inquinante al mondo, punta a ridurre <a href="http://aqicn.org/map/china/" style="color: #416ed2; max-width: 100%; text-decoration: none;">le altissime emissioni</a> di CO2 continuando però a crescere economicamente, seppur in misura inferiore rispetto al passato. Nel 13° piano quinquennale, con la strategia per lo sviluppo per il periodo 2016-2020, sono elencati i <a href="http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2016-03/25/c_135223130.htm" style="color: #416ed2; max-width: 100%; text-decoration: none;">cambiamenti</a> da porre in essere per perseguire un futuro più “verde”: <em style="max-width: 100%;">in primis</em> ridurre il consumo di carbone (prima fonte energetica del Paese) dal 64% al 62% entro i prossimi 4 anni e aumentare l’utilizzo di energia non fossile, da portare al 15% dei consumi totali nel 2020 e al 20% entro il 2030.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;">L’energia solare, eolica, idroelettrica e nucleare avranno perciò un ruolo di rilievo. La Cina <a href="http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/business/2016-04/22/content_24744138.htm" style="color: #416ed2; max-width: 100%; text-decoration: none;">ha</a> 30 centrali nucleari in funzione (capacità totale di 28,3 gigawatt, poco più di un quarto di quella americana), la maggior parte delle quali concentrata sulle coste, e altre 26 in costruzione. Pechino vuole riprendere la progettazione degli impianti anche nella Cina interna, sospesa <a href="http://www.china.org.cn/china/NPC_CPPCC_2016/2016-03/07/content_37958116.htm" style="color: #416ed2; max-width: 100%; text-decoration: none;">perché considerata</a> pericolosa all’indomani della tragedia di Fukushima. In particolare si temeva che in caso di guasto le risorse idriche sarebbero state contaminate, danneggiando milioni di abitanti. Una parte dei cinesi nutre ancora questa preoccupazione.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;">Secondo i piani, nel 2020 il paese <a href="http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/980301.shtml" style="color: #416ed2; max-width: 100%; text-decoration: none;">avrà</a> 90 reattori. Pechino progetta anche la costruzione di 20 centrali nucleari galleggianti per fornire energia anche a luoghi più remoti. La prima <a href="http://edition.cnn.com/2016/04/28/opinions/china-floating-nuclear-reactors/" style="color: #416ed2; max-width: 100%; text-decoration: none;">potrebbe</a> essere dislocata sull’isola di Hainan, che si affaccia sullo strategico Mar Cinese Meridionale.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;">La Repubblica popolare inoltre vuole esportare la propria tecnologia nucleare - combinando il <em style="max-width: 100%;">know-how</em> accumulato in questi anni in patria con i suoi bassi costi del lavoro e del capitale. Alla fine del 2015, infatti, la Cina si è accordata con il Regno Unito per la costruzione di un impianto nucleare di nuova generazione a Hinkley Point (Somerset) in collaborazione con la francese Edf. Pechino e Londra stanno negoziando investimenti per la creazione di <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/business-34587650" style="color: #416ed2; max-width: 100%; text-decoration: none;">altre due centrali</a>.<span style="max-width: 100%;"> </span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;">Inoltre, lo scorso febbraio, due imprese statali, la China General Nuclear Power (CGN) e la China National Nuclear Power <a href="http://www.wsj.com/articles/china-inc-s-nuclear-power-push-1456251331" style="color: #416ed2; max-width: 100%; text-decoration: none;">hanno sviluppato</a> una joint-venture per vendere all’estero il reattore cinese di terza generazione <em style="max-width: 100%;">Hualong one</em>. Quattro reattori di questo tipo sono già in costruzione nel Fujian e nel Guangxi (Cina del Sud) e si sta prendendo in considerazione la loro realizzazione nel Regno Unito, in Pakistan e in Argentina.</span></div>
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<strong style="max-width: 100%;"><em style="max-width: 100%;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;">La deterrenza nucleare cinese</span></em></strong></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;">Come afferma il <a href="http://www.scio.gov.cn/zfbps/gfbps/Document/1435341/1435341.htm" style="color: #416ed2; max-width: 100%; text-decoration: none;">Libro bianco della Difesa del 2015</a>, Pechino si attiene formalmente alla politica del “<em style="max-width: 100%;">no first use</em>” nucleare e alla strategia di “difesa attiva”. Tradotto, come recita lo stesso Libro bianco: “Non attaccheremo se non saremo attaccati ma certamente attaccheremo se saremo attaccati”.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;">Secondo lo <a href="http://www.sipri.org/research/armaments/nuclear-forces" style="color: #416ed2; max-width: 100%; text-decoration: none;">Stockholm research institute (Sipri)</a> la Cina possiede 260 testate nucleari: il numero è nettamente inferiore rispetto alle 7.500 della Russia e alle 7.260 degli USA. Ciò la colloca al quarto posto tra i 5 Stati “nucleari” riconosciuti dal Trattato – con la Francia in terza posizione (300 testate). <a href="http://www.defense.gov/Portals/1/Documents/pubs/2016%20China%20Military%20Power%20Report.pdf" style="color: #416ed2; max-width: 100%; text-decoration: none;">Il rapporto annuale</a> del Dipartimento del Difesa americano afferma che ad oggi la Repubblica popolare ha tra i 75 e i 100 missili balistici intercontinentali (inclusi quelli dotati di testate multiple indipendenti) e circa 1.200 missili balistici di breve gittata. La Marina sarebbe dotata invece di 5 sottomarini nucleari.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;">Pechino punta contestualmente a migliorare anche la propria tecnologia missilistica nucleare, come parte del <a href="http://www.limesonline.com/meno-esercito-piu-xi-la-riforma-delle-forze-armate-in-cina/89741" style="color: #416ed2; max-width: 100%; text-decoration: none;">processo di modernizzazione</a> dell’<em style="max-width: 100%;">Esercito popolare di liberazione</em>, cioè le forze armate cinesi. Fonti internazionali sostengono che vi sono ritardi nello sviluppo di alcuni nuovi missili a causa delle prestazioni ancora non adeguate delle componenti elettroniche di produzione nazionale.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;">La Cina <a href="http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2016-03/31/content_24203870.htm" style="color: #416ed2; max-width: 100%; text-decoration: none;">starebbe anche sviluppando</a> cacciabombardieri di lunga gittata, in grado di portare armi convenzionali e nucleari. Il loro utilizzo permetterebbe a Pechino di disporre della cosiddetta “triade nucleare”, ovvero di sistemi di lancio per terra, mare e aria.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;">Nella prima settimana di maggio si è svolto il 7° Congresso del Partito dei lavoratori di Corea (il primo in 36 anni), di cui il dittatore è stato ufficialmente nominato presidente (con un passaggio cerimoniale, visto che ricopre già la carica di Presidente del paese dal 2011). Nell’occasione ha comunque affermato che Pyongyang agirà da potenza nucleare “responsabile”, vale a dire utilizzando il proprio arsenale in caso di diretta violazione della sovranità nazionale e di proliferazione nucleare: una formula simile a quella utilizzata dalla Cina.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;">Il presidente cinese Xi Jinping <a href="http://news.xinhuanet.com/world/2016-05/09/c_1118834003.htm" style="color: #416ed2; max-width: 100%; text-decoration: none;">si è congratulato con il suo omologo nordcoreano</a> per la nomina. Secondo la versione del messaggio riportata dai media cinesi, Xi non ha usato l’appellativo “compagno” per rivolgersi al suo alleato socialista – come aveva invece fatto in passato. Pyongyang <a href="http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/news/2016/05/10/0200000000AEN20160510007900315.html?input=www.tweeter.com?7a2269d8" style="color: #416ed2; max-width: 100%; text-decoration: none;">afferma</a> in realtà il contrario. In ogni caso, il mancato utilizzo del termine “compagno” è interpretato da alcuni come il segno di una certa freddezza di Xi verso Kim, proprio a causa dei test nucleari degli ultimi mesi.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;">Il 6 gennaio scorso la Corea del Nord ha affermato di averne condotto uno con un ordigno termonucleare – considerato a livello internazionale il quarto esperimento nordcoreano dall’inizio del programma di sperimentazione nel 2006. Il ministro degli Esteri cinese Wang Yi ha dichiarato che la Cina si <a href="http://news.xinhuanet.com/world/2016-01/06/c_1117688952.htm" style="color: #416ed2; max-width: 100%; text-decoration: none;">oppone fermamente</a> a tale scelta. Circa un mese dopo la Corea del Nord ha testato un razzo con componenti idonee a un missile balistico intercontinentale. Poi ad aprile ne ha sperimentato (fallendo) uno lanciato da sottomarino nel Mare dell’Est.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;">I primi due eventi hanno spinto Pechino a votare favore di nuove sanzioni economiche contro Pyongyang presso il Consiglio di sicurezza ONU a marzo.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;">Le misure punitive sono piuttosto rigide e colpiscono tra gli altri il settore del carbone (che viene venduto tutto alla Cina), delle imbarcazioni, delle armi e dei beni di lusso. L’obbligo di ispezione per tutti i carichi da e per la Corea del Nord conferma l’importanza del ruolo della Cina, poiché il commercio terrestre nordcoreano passa quasi tutto attraverso il suo territorio. Del resto sul piano economico la Corea del Nord dipende quasi totalmente da Pechino.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;">Approvando le sanzioni, la Cina ha voluto ribadire alla Corea del Nord che se volesse potrebbe chiudere i rubinetti in qualsiasi momento. Secondo alcuni report, sembra che le autorità cinesi stiano applicando seriamente le sanzioni, e da subito; tuttavia, ci sono forti dubbi sul fatto che Pechino intenda interrompere del tutto i rapporti commerciali con Pyongyang.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;">Del resto, in termini geostrategici la Cina non può far a meno della Corea del Nord. Pechino ha bisogno di preservare l’esistenza di questo paese perché svolge il ruolo di cuscinetto con la Corea del Sud, alleata degli Usa - Seul ospita circa 28 mila soldati americani. Per la Repubblica popolare, il crollo del regime di Pyongyang sarebbe un problema: potrebbe determinare una crisi umanitaria tale da riversare milioni di nordcoreani sul proprio territorio e consentire ai soldati americani di giungere a ridosso del confine cinese.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;">Per questo Pechino è favorevole alla ripresa dal dialogo a sei (i “<em style="max-width: 100%;">six party talks</em>” che coinvolgono Cina, USA, Corea del Nord, del Sud, Russia e Giappone) volto alla denuclearizzazione della penisola coreana. Insomma, per Pechino l’ideale sarebbe una Pyongyang sufficientemente minacciosa da tenere gli americani lontani dai propri confini, ma che concretamente non ponesse mai in essere la sua minaccia.</span></div>
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Giorgio Cuscitohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14965827718771456940noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8486477718764400497.post-61390247456846056172016-05-24T16:52:00.002+02:002016-05-24T16:52:32.842+02:00Il discorso della presidente di Taiwan che non è piaciuto a Pechino<span style="font-size: large;">Il mio commento per <a href="http://www.limesonline.com/obama-revoca-embargo-armi-vietnam-isis-siria-mansour-notizie-oggi/91828#cnt4" target="_blank">Limes</a> su Tsai Ing-wen e ciò che (non) ha detto nel suo primo discorso da presidente. </span>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg8T8GAtDT-trZIGyIZ7tvfAqA9WFDpv3r81KFaGZUQQddkZBuYtundrcaMXZNfwri8BL33QrAXjHa3fYpBpIItJF1U1843Aw1DdVdDr-Dtj9c33YCuIoSqxBd3O0r6rORUq8StURcNsMU/s1600/920x920.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="432" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg8T8GAtDT-trZIGyIZ7tvfAqA9WFDpv3r81KFaGZUQQddkZBuYtundrcaMXZNfwri8BL33QrAXjHa3fYpBpIItJF1U1843Aw1DdVdDr-Dtj9c33YCuIoSqxBd3O0r6rORUq8StURcNsMU/s640/920x920.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Fonte: http://www.timesunion.com/news/world/article/Q-A-on-new-Taiwan-President-Tsai-Ing-wen-s-7817210.php </td></tr>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Durante
il <a href="https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=http-3A__us7.campaign-2Darchive1.com_-3Fu-3D514c164469699ac1ac10bfe93-26id-3D8b515663ec-26e-3D546c7ffad8-26utm-5Fsource-3DThe-2BSinocism-2BChina-2BNewsletter-26utm-5Fcampaign-3D369655d0f2-2DSinocism05-5F22-5F165-5F22-5F2016-26utm-5Fmedium-3Demail-26utm-5Fterm-3D0-5F171f237867-2D369655d0f2-2D29608249-26mc-5Fcid-3D3&d=CwMFaQ&c=tUIXUh5BJuGeCwZVj7ChnbhB_cIdD6lQgMfidODHLEk&r=8ttJZ1GHeOrGX75V5mpCaqETQMleZb89WJEg4Ni4kjM&m=rE7p13D-jQGqfqb1ZtwR20WQUwkvn8GVlLuAlkrHK-8&s=vFGX-S97xfJsBE9e969LtInsYEGdbtSQgze6Hd2iNW0&e=">suo
primo discorso</a> da presidente, Tsai si è concentrata soprattutto sulle
riforme che intende attuare per risolvere i problemi di natura domestica.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span style="font-size: large;">In
particolare la leader del Partito progressista democratico (Ppd,
considerato pro-indipendenza dalla Repubblica popolare cinese) ha parlato
della necessità di risollevare l’economia di Taiwan, il cui tasso di
crescita nel 2015 <a href="https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=http-3A__www.focus-2Deconomics.com_countries_taiwan&d=CwMFaQ&c=tUIXUh5BJuGeCwZVj7ChnbhB_cIdD6lQgMfidODHLEk&r=8ttJZ1GHeOrGX75V5mpCaqETQMleZb89WJEg4Ni4kjM&m=rE7p13D-jQGqfqb1ZtwR20WQUwkvn8GVlLuAlkrHK-8&s=_YL5vCDIvkfvsNffF4Id2obYUaVH9-Y1ot99VyDl1rk&e=">è
stato dello 0.8%</a>.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span style="font-size: large;">Quest’ultimo
elemento (più che l’eccessivo riavvicinamento alla Repubblica popolare sotto la
guida del predecessore Ma Ying-jeou) <a href="https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=http-3A__www.taipeitimes.com_News_taiwan_archives_2016_01_08_2003636710&d=CwMFaQ&c=tUIXUh5BJuGeCwZVj7ChnbhB_cIdD6lQgMfidODHLEk&r=8ttJZ1GHeOrGX75V5mpCaqETQMleZb89WJEg4Ni4kjM&m=rE7p13D-jQGqfqb1ZtwR20WQUwkvn8GVlLuAlkrHK-8&s=QqraS0dBIBBMoHi-uU7EyQfFd6pxAu1FcxzcqyX5N3w&e=">sarebbe
stato</a> alla radice della sua vittoria elettorale.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Tsai
ha detto di voler avviare un “nuovo modello di sviluppo economico” basato su
innovazione, occupazione ed equa distribuzione, anche se i dettagli del
programma scarseggiano. Di questo progetto dovrebbe far parte anche il coinvolgimento
in accordi bilaterali e multilaterali di libero scambio, tra cui la
Trans-pacific partnership proposta dagli Usa.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span style="font-size: large;">Per
quanto riguarda le relazioni tra Taipei e Pechino, Tsai si è limitata a dire
che si impegnerà per mantenere lo status quo, la stabilità e la pace a “cavallo
dello Stretto”.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span style="font-size: large;">La
neopresidente, come accaduto nei mesi scorsi, non ha riconosciuto
esplicitamente il “Consenso del 1992”, in base al quale entrambi i governi
riconoscono l’esistenza di “una sola Cina”, pur non essendo d’accordo su chi
debba governarla tra Taipei e Pechino.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Tsai
ha detto di rispettare il “fatto storico” del 1992 e i progressi successivi, ma
ha aggiunto che le due parti "devono mettere da parte la storia e
impegnarsi in un dialogo positivo, per il bene di entrambi i popoli”.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Pechino <a href="https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=http-3A__news.xinhuanet.com_tw_2016-2D05_20_c-5F1118904201.htm&d=CwMFaQ&c=tUIXUh5BJuGeCwZVj7ChnbhB_cIdD6lQgMfidODHLEk&r=8ttJZ1GHeOrGX75V5mpCaqETQMleZb89WJEg4Ni4kjM&m=rE7p13D-jQGqfqb1ZtwR20WQUwkvn8GVlLuAlkrHK-8&s=Osv6m3mNGysU9NTi8ggdAp8-UX2763Jqx81rXfO0p5o&e=">ha
criticato</a> ufficialmente tali affermazioni e sottolineato che la leader
taiwanese non ha fatto alcuna proposta concreta per assicurare la crescita
delle relazioni “a cavallo dello Stretto”. Infine ha ribadito risolutamente la
sua opposizione all’indipendenza di Taiwan. Ma Xiaoguang, portavoce
dell’ufficio del consiglio di Stato per le questioni riguardanti Taiwan, <a href="https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=http-3A__news.xinhuanet.com_english_2016-2D05_21_c-5F135377007.htm&d=CwMFaQ&c=tUIXUh5BJuGeCwZVj7ChnbhB_cIdD6lQgMfidODHLEk&r=8ttJZ1GHeOrGX75V5mpCaqETQMleZb89WJEg4Ni4kjM&m=rE7p13D-jQGqfqb1ZtwR20WQUwkvn8GVlLuAlkrHK-8&s=sv-4aBlKtHCr7bAvwYSY9QrWDdOwU9Z-XRCm6rB_pWM&e=">ha
aggiunto</a> che solo aderendo al Consenso del 1992 Taipei potrà
continuare a comunicare regolarmente con Pechino.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Considerato
che la Repubblica popolare è il 1° partner commerciale di Taiwan (<a href="https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=http-3A__www.cfr.org_china_china-2Dtaiwan-2Drelations_p9223&d=CwMFaQ&c=tUIXUh5BJuGeCwZVj7ChnbhB_cIdD6lQgMfidODHLEk&r=8ttJZ1GHeOrGX75V5mpCaqETQMleZb89WJEg4Ni4kjM&m=rE7p13D-jQGqfqb1ZtwR20WQUwkvn8GVlLuAlkrHK-8&s=rH3UQiF2aUlMMQdipqx54V-uH_Kyd8BIpKhKWgw508w&e=">l’interscambio</a> è
pari quasi a 200 miliardi di dollari) e che tra le priorità di Tsai vi è
rivitalizzare l’economia dell’isola di Formosa, viene da chiedersi se dare
spazio a queste tensioni sarebbe per la neopresidente una mossa saggia.</span><o:p></o:p></div>
Giorgio Cuscitohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14965827718771456940noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8486477718764400497.post-45815676493225956652016-05-20T19:41:00.002+02:002016-05-20T19:41:28.812+02:00Zhang Dejiang e le proteste a Hong Kong <span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;">Il mio commento per Limes sulle proteste a Hong Kong in occasione della visita del numero 3 del Partito comunista cinese. </span><br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEigwzY-ifwhLQINQjSfvHTNBjfXZHZSKsTSCVg6l6uoZj-aX26yKXX1Du6w-_taWfSziXNuG1eHZSm1wU0u4qJH5pmuGnKNtRiivom5sRIpEsAD-Z20cEU_LR90kLdmhrBD4UqtnFLKthU/s1600/Schermata+2016-05-20+alle+19.35.59.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEigwzY-ifwhLQINQjSfvHTNBjfXZHZSKsTSCVg6l6uoZj-aX26yKXX1Du6w-_taWfSziXNuG1eHZSm1wU0u4qJH5pmuGnKNtRiivom5sRIpEsAD-Z20cEU_LR90kLdmhrBD4UqtnFLKthU/s640/Schermata+2016-05-20+alle+19.35.59.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Fonte: http://www.thepeninsulaqatar.com/news/asia/382361/protests-in-hong-kong-as-top-china-official-visits</td></tr>
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<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;">Gli attivisti pro-democrazia di Hong Kong <a href="https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=https-3A__www.hongkongfp.com_2016_05_18_no-2Dto-2Done-2Dbelt-2Done-2Droad-2Dzhang-2Ddejiang-2Dget-2Dlost-2Dhk-2Dprotesters-2Drally-2Dagainst-2Dchinas-2Dno-2D3-2Dofficial_&d=CwMFaQ&c=tUIXUh5BJuGeCwZVj7ChnbhB_cIdD6lQgMfidODHLEk&r=8ttJZ1GHeOrGX75V5mpCaqETQMleZb89WJEg4Ni4kjM&m=Cf9DkWjlOBrEkiHo_vlFYU9xUcZqcTSk_LrGoGXErM4&s=6CHrAiNYlZsniXril3ek6ubXuwJdk1rnvAvGd2ktDto&e=" style="border: 0px; cursor: pointer; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">hanno approfittato</a> della visita di Zhang Dejiang, presidente del comitato permanente del Congresso nazionale del popolo e funzionario responsabile per le questioni di Hong Kong e Macao, per protestare contro il governo di Pechino.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;">Zhang, in quanto numero 3 del partito dopo il presidente Xi Jinping e il premier Li Keqiang, è stato il politico di più alto livello a visitare la Regione ad amministrazione speciale dopo Hu Jintao nel 2012. Il motivo formale della visita (parlare del ruolo di Hong Kong nel progetto “Una cintura, una via”) non è importato ai manifestanti. Questi, come <a href="http://www.limesonline.com/hong-kong-il-miraggio-della-democrazia-e-lombra-della-cina/64242" style="border: 0px; cursor: pointer; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">avvenuto in maniera sonora anche nel 2014</a> durante la manifestazione Occupy central e la cosiddetta “<a href="http://www.limesonline.com/a-hong-kong-molti-ombrelli-poca-rivoluzione/67313" style="border: 0px; cursor: pointer; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">rivoluzione degli ombrelli</a>“, hanno chiesto maggiore democrazia.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;">Da quando Hong Kong è stata restituita dal Regno Unito alla Cina nel 1997 con la formula “un paese, due sistemi”, una parte dei suoi abitanti pretende di eleggere direttamente l’esecutivo e il legislativo. Questo è l’obiettivo finale della <a href="https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=http-3A__www.basiclaw.gov.hk_tc_index_index.html&d=CwMFaQ&c=tUIXUh5BJuGeCwZVj7ChnbhB_cIdD6lQgMfidODHLEk&r=8ttJZ1GHeOrGX75V5mpCaqETQMleZb89WJEg4Ni4kjM&m=Cf9DkWjlOBrEkiHo_vlFYU9xUcZqcTSk_LrGoGXErM4&s=p9pt0GVoctMdexoIJSqyACmvKu_uwhNuXJCR1TevAzE&e=" style="border: 0px; cursor: pointer; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">Basic Law</a>, la legge fondamentale che garantisce agli hongkonghesi molte libertà politiche, economiche e sociali e definisce l’articolato sistema politico della regione.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;">Il suo funzionamento, apparentemente democratico, è in realtà gestito da Pechino, che di fatto seleziona il governo locale. Il testo quasi-costituzionale “scadrà” nel 2047 e i cittadini temono che quell’anno possa segnare il ritorno di Hong Kong sotto il completo controllo del governo centrale.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;">Questa eventualità non pare indispensabile per Pechino, che già influenza a sufficienza la vita politica delle regione. Inoltre, qui è già presente in maniera ufficiale e ufficiosa. Lo dimostrerebbero anche il <a href="https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=http-3A__www.scmp.com_topics_hong-2Dkong-2Dbookseller-2Ddisappearances&d=CwMFaQ&c=tUIXUh5BJuGeCwZVj7ChnbhB_cIdD6lQgMfidODHLEk&r=8ttJZ1GHeOrGX75V5mpCaqETQMleZb89WJEg4Ni4kjM&m=Cf9DkWjlOBrEkiHo_vlFYU9xUcZqcTSk_LrGoGXErM4&s=i46no1geo6T-4kH8G6CH_8FivVKMbdeYNZ7kVJqdmY0&e=" style="border: 0px; cursor: pointer; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">recente prelievo </a>e la detenzione nella Cina continentale di alcuni dirigenti editoriali e librai hongkonghesi, accusati di volervi contrabbandare un libro su una presunta relazione amorosa avuta da Xi Jinping in gioventù.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;">Zhang <a href="https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=http-3A__www.scmp.com_news_hong-2Dkong_politics_article_1947170_you-2Dwont-2Dlose-2Dyour-2Didentity-2Dzhang-2Ddejiang-2Dassures-2Dhong-2Dkong&d=CwMFaQ&c=tUIXUh5BJuGeCwZVj7ChnbhB_cIdD6lQgMfidODHLEk&r=8ttJZ1GHeOrGX75V5mpCaqETQMleZb89WJEg4Ni4kjM&m=Cf9DkWjlOBrEkiHo_vlFYU9xUcZqcTSk_LrGoGXErM4&s=eDVfpfWMRakLAKICU2xfHSpIuSnYmN5-nNY2x6MS2dc&e=" style="border: 0px; cursor: pointer; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">ha detto</a> che Hong Kong non perderà la sua autonomia e la sua identità, ma non può pretendere l’indipendenza. È lecito aspettarsi nuove proteste l’anno prossimo, quando si terranno le elezioni del nuovo capo del governo locale. In ogni caso, per la regione il raggiungimento di una “democrazia genuina” pare ancora un miraggio.</span></div>
Giorgio Cuscitohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14965827718771456940noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8486477718764400497.post-52640102786434822082016-05-17T13:17:00.000+02:002016-05-17T13:27:03.511+02:00I commenti dei media cinesi sull'anniversario della Rivoluzione culturale<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: large;">Finalmente i media cinesi hanno rotto il silenzio e commentato il 50° anniversario dell'inizio della <a href="http://www.history.com/topics/cultural-revolution" target="_blank">Rivoluzione culturale</a>.</span></div>
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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Il poster dedicato a Mao dice "Andare avanti con coraggio, seguendo il grande leader il presidente Mao!" Fonte: <a href="http://chineseposters.net/posters/e13-594.php" target="_blank">chineseposters.net </a></td></tr>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Questa <a href="http://www.history.com/topics/cultural-revolution" target="_blank">fu lanciata</a> il 16 maggio del 1966 dal "grande timoniere" Mao Zedong per riguadagnare potere dopo il fallimento del "Grande balzo in avanti" (il piano economico per industrializzare il paese), che ne aveva indebolito il ruolo </span><span style="font-size: large;">all'interno del Partito comunista, e preservare l'ideologia comunista.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">L'escalation della Rivoluzione culturale è stata segnata da caos e violenza che hanno provocato milioni di morti. Per questo l' argomento è soggetto alla censura di Pechino. </span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Il <a href="http://opinion.people.com.cn/n1/2016/0517/c1003-28355143.html" target="_blank">Quotidiano del Popolo</a> e il tabloid "fratello" </span><span style="font-size: large;">in lingua inglese</span><span style="font-size: large;"> </span><span style="font-size: large;"><a href="http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/983377.shtml" target="_blank">Global Times</a> </span><span style="font-size: large;"> hanno mandato un messaggio chiaro: la Rivoluzione culturale fa parte del passato, bisogna guardare avanti lungo la via del "socialismo con caratteristiche cinesi". </span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">"Negare completamente i valori della Rivoluzione culturale non è solo una cosa su cui è d'accordo tutto il Partito, ma tutta la società cinese", afferma il Global Times. La Cina ha fatto enormi passi in avanti in termini di crescita economica da quel periodo e "non è possibile che una simile rivoluzione si ripeta". </span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">L'articolo sostiene che molti paesi hanno sperimentato nel corso degli ultimi anni guerre civili, ma non la Cina, resa quasi immune da quell'esperienza. "Nessuno teme i tumulti e desidera stabilità più di noi". In questa frase emerge come il mantenimento della stabilità (in cinese <i>weiwen</i>) rappresenti il pilastro geopolitico della Repubblica popolare, da cui dipende la sovranità del Partito comunista cinese. </span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Il Quotidiano del Popolo sostiene che <a href="http://www.china.org.cn/china/reform-opening-up/node_7054978.htm" target="_blank">30 anni dopo</a> l'inizio del programma di riforme economiche e di apertura lanciato da Deng Xiaoping, "la nazione è diventata forte, la qualità della vita è migliorata continuamente e il sistema legale socialista democratico si è rafforzato".</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Entrambi gli editoriali inoltre riaffermano la correttezza della <a href="https://www.marxists.org/subject/china/documents/cpc/history/01.htm" target="_blank">risoluzione</a> del Partito comunista sulla Rivoluzione culturale. Questa, adottata nel 1981, definisce il periodo tra il 1966 e il 1976 come un "decennio catastrofico". Tuttavia sminuisce le responsabilità di Mao Zedong e attribuisce la maggior parte delle colpe alla "banda dei quattro", gruppo di politici arrestati nel 1976 dopo la morte del "grande timoniere" che includeva anche la sua ultima moglie, Jian Qing. </span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Del resto criticare totalmente Mao significherebbe mettere in discussione le stesse basi ideologiche su cui si fonda il Partito comunista cinese.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Negli ultimi anni, il presidente Xi Jinping ha accentrato notevolmente il suo potere e in molti in Occidente hanno affermato </span><span style="font-size: large;">- forse in maniera prematura -</span><span style="font-size: large;"> </span><span style="font-size: large;">che con lui stia tornando in auge il culto della personalità dell'epoca di Mao. </span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Ad ogni modo le resistenze interne al Partito, <a href="http://www.limesonline.com/cina-xi-jinping-mao-culto-personalita-media-potere/91258?prv=true" target="_blank">lasciano intendere</a> che la leadership di Xi non è così salda come si pensava. Tale contesto rende la Rivoluzione culturale un tema ancora più delicato.</span></div>
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Giorgio Cuscitohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14965827718771456940noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8486477718764400497.post-47157329351882903982016-05-11T18:09:00.002+02:002016-05-11T18:41:08.924+02:00Il Milan, la Cina e l'errore sulla Gazzetta<span style="font-size: large;">E' arrivato da Fininvest l'ok alla trattativa per la vendita del 70% del Milan alla cordata cinese. </span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;">Sull'ascesa della Repubblica popolare (anche) nel calcio scriverò a breve per Limes. </span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Intanto vi segnalo questo errore sulla prima pagina della Gazzetta dello Sport di oggi 11/5/2016: </span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">中文 (zhōngwén) significa "lingua cinese", non "sì" come messo tra parentesi sul quotidiano sportivo. </span></div>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj5dafzteVTAamcQi9TQefn3pTR7qyd0Ci_M5YoacK7VwLtspGtzQrGXXV9DPZwZnRW6kkizkjdRTaLf67hkoVn5u-iVvtSyjilsIpBFXe0sCuOVpVmqb6bbmWIzZ9Vs6xttfiKyRP_4is/s1600/Schermata+2016-05-11+alle+18.00.11.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj5dafzteVTAamcQi9TQefn3pTR7qyd0Ci_M5YoacK7VwLtspGtzQrGXXV9DPZwZnRW6kkizkjdRTaLf67hkoVn5u-iVvtSyjilsIpBFXe0sCuOVpVmqb6bbmWIzZ9Vs6xttfiKyRP_4is/s640/Schermata+2016-05-11+alle+18.00.11.png" width="452" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">La prima pagina della Gazzetta dello Sport (11/5/2016). Fonte: <a href="http://www.gazzetta.it/primapagina/">http://www.gazzetta.it/primapagina/</a> </td></tr>
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Giorgio Cuscitohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14965827718771456940noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8486477718764400497.post-47682401958186098122016-05-09T14:52:00.003+02:002016-05-10T09:51:39.279+02:00Wang Yi a Roma: il ruolo dell'Italia lungo le vie della seta cinesi <span style="font-size: large;">Il mio commento <a href="http://www.limesonline.com/migranti-ue-turchia-il-mondo-questa-settimana-8/91554" target="_blank">per Limes</a> sulla visita del ministro degli Esteri della Repubblica popolare in Italia di pochi giorni fa.</span><br />
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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Il progetto "una cintura, una via". </td></tr>
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<a name='more'></a><span style="font-size: large;">L’<a data-mce-href="http://www.esteri.it/mae/resource/doc/2016/05/comunicatoitalia_cina.pdf" href="http://www.esteri.it/mae/resource/doc/2016/05/comunicatoitalia_cina.pdf" target="_blank">incontro</a>
tra il ministro degli Esteri italiano Paolo Gentiloni e il suo omologo
cinese Wang Yi ha confermato l’intensificarsi delle relazioni tra Italia
e Repubblica popolare, soprattutto sul piano economico. </span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Wang
ha colto l’occasione per esaltare le opportunità che il grande mercato
dell’Impero del Centro può fornire alle piccole-medie imprese nostrane,
dotate di tecnologia di alto livello e <em>know-how</em>.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Roma e Pechino intendono cooperare in diversi settori:
tecnologie verdi e sviluppo sostenibile, agricoltura e sicurezza
alimentare, urbanizzazione sostenibile, sanità e servizi sanitari,
aviazione e aerospazio. Proprio le aree in cui la Repubblica popolare
deve progredire per affrontare la transizione economica e sociale verso
la “nuova normalità", caratterizzata da una crescita meno accentuata e
una maggiore attenzione alla qualità della vita dei cinesi.</span></div>
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<div data-mce-style="text-align: justify;" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: large;">Negli ultimi anni gli investimenti cinesi in Italia sono aumentati notevolmente, anche in <a data-mce-href="http://www.limesonline.com/cartaceo/dove-e-perche-investe-la-cina" href="http://www.limesonline.com/cartaceo/dove-e-perche-investe-la-cina">aziende d’interesse strategico</a> (vedi
per esempio Eni, Enel, Terna, Ansaldo, Telecom Italia, Fiat Chrysler e
Pirelli) e nel 2015 l’interscambio commerciale sino-italiano ha
raggiunto i 38,6 miliardi di euro. La cifra potrebbe aumentare nei
prossimi anni grazie al crescente coinvolgimento della paese nel
progetto infrastrutturale e commerciale “Una cintura, una via”.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Posizionata strategicamente nel cuore del Mar Mediterraneo, l’Italia rappresenta il perfetto anello di congiunzione tra la rotta terrestre e quella marittima delle “<a data-mce-href="http://www.limesonline.com/le-nuove-vie-della-seta-secondo-pechino/64921" href="http://www.limesonline.com/le-nuove-vie-della-seta-secondo-pechino/64921" target="_blank">nuove vie della seta</a>”, come testimoniano le <a data-mce-href="https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=http-3A__www.xinhuanet.com_fortune_cjzthgjj_104.htm&d=CwMFaQ&c=tUIXUh5BJuGeCwZVj7ChnbhB_cIdD6lQgMfidODHLEk&r=8ttJZ1GHeOrGX75V5mpCaqETQMleZb89WJEg4Ni4kjM&m=8YihrLaaT6h5eBIhB3L-T_STCdcbTU0qhv3bkU4GC64&s=iKJhjWe4rdKDnKBs66RyLyTUtksLbQWFXROo99x8VY8&e=" href="https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=http-3A__www.xinhuanet.com_fortune_cjzthgjj_104.htm&d=CwMFaQ&c=tUIXUh5BJuGeCwZVj7ChnbhB_cIdD6lQgMfidODHLEk&r=8ttJZ1GHeOrGX75V5mpCaqETQMleZb89WJEg4Ni4kjM&m=8YihrLaaT6h5eBIhB3L-T_STCdcbTU0qhv3bkU4GC64&s=iKJhjWe4rdKDnKBs66RyLyTUtksLbQWFXROo99x8VY8&e=">rappresentazioni cartografiche ufficiali</a>. Ciò rende la Penisola potenziale meta degli investimenti cinesi anche nel settore delle infrastrutture.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">In tale ambito, si consideri lungo la rotta terrestre il progetto di costruzione di una grande rete ferroviaria ad alta velocità per unire l’Europa all'Asia promosso dal <a data-mce-href="https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=http-3A__silkroad-2Dforum.com&d=CwMFaQ&c=tUIXUh5BJuGeCwZVj7ChnbhB_cIdD6lQgMfidODHLEk&r=8ttJZ1GHeOrGX75V5mpCaqETQMleZb89WJEg4Ni4kjM&m=8YihrLaaT6h5eBIhB3L-T_STCdcbTU0qhv3bkU4GC64&s=fPlrtzWHbbCl3f4HwfZBbnSLVmnIPUm-Xl_vuJGc1aw&e=" href="https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=http-3A__silkroad-2Dforum.com&d=CwMFaQ&c=tUIXUh5BJuGeCwZVj7ChnbhB_cIdD6lQgMfidODHLEk&r=8ttJZ1GHeOrGX75V5mpCaqETQMleZb89WJEg4Ni4kjM&m=8YihrLaaT6h5eBIhB3L-T_STCdcbTU0qhv3bkU4GC64&s=fPlrtzWHbbCl3f4HwfZBbnSLVmnIPUm-Xl_vuJGc1aw&e=">Railway silk road cities forum</a>, cui partecipano ad oggi 30 città e che ha come sede europea Torino.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Lungo la rotta marittima rilevano per esempio <a data-mce-href="https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=http-3A__finance.sina.com.cn_roll_20151206_185023944401.shtml&d=CwMFaQ&c=tUIXUh5BJuGeCwZVj7ChnbhB_cIdD6lQgMfidODHLEk&r=8ttJZ1GHeOrGX75V5mpCaqETQMleZb89WJEg4Ni4kjM&m=8YihrLaaT6h5eBIhB3L-T_STCdcbTU0qhv3bkU4GC64&s=OwGpSOP_uuE30qdi9A6VFs44fC79y1manZAxf4BYpXo&e=" href="https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=http-3A__finance.sina.com.cn_roll_20151206_185023944401.shtml&d=CwMFaQ&c=tUIXUh5BJuGeCwZVj7ChnbhB_cIdD6lQgMfidODHLEk&r=8ttJZ1GHeOrGX75V5mpCaqETQMleZb89WJEg4Ni4kjM&m=8YihrLaaT6h5eBIhB3L-T_STCdcbTU0qhv3bkU4GC64&s=OwGpSOP_uuE30qdi9A6VFs44fC79y1manZAxf4BYpXo&e=">gli sforzi di Venezia</a>, che insieme
a Marghera, Ravenna, Trieste, Capodistria (in Slovenia), Fiume (in
Croazia) intende creare una moderna rete portuale in grado di accogliere
i flussi commerciali cinesi e competere con le infrastrutture di
Rotterdam e Anversa nel Nord Europa e il Pireo in Grecia.</span></div>
<span data-mce-style="color: #008000;" style="color: green;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></span>
<span data-mce-style="color: #008000;" style="color: green;"><span style="font-size: large;">Per approfondire:</span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.limesonline.com/cartaceo/dove-e-perche-investe-la-cina" href="http://www.limesonline.com/cartaceo/dove-e-perche-investe-la-cina" target="_blank">Dove e perché investe la Cina</a>, <em>di G. Cuscito</em></span><br />
<div class="sommario">
<span style="font-size: large;">La
China Investment Corporation, primo fondo sovrano della Repubblica
Popolare, continua a puntare sull’energia, ma intende espandersi anche
nella produzione alimentare. Pechino si prepara a sostenere il futuro
incremento del consumo interno di cibo.</span></div>
<span style="font-size: large;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.limesonline.com/cartaceo/la-grande-strategia-cinese" href="http://www.limesonline.com/cartaceo/la-grande-strategia-cinese" target="_blank">La grande strategia cinese</a>, <em>di Qiao L.</em></span><br />
<div class="sommario">
<span style="font-size: large;">Per
rispondere al perno asiatico di Obama, la Cina deve necessariamente
muovere verso Occidente. E internazionalizzare la propria moneta. La
finanza conta più delle portaerei. In attesa che le innovazioni
tecnologiche si ribellino all’America.</span></div>
Giorgio Cuscitohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14965827718771456940noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8486477718764400497.post-51405873925035548172016-05-07T14:12:00.002+02:002016-05-07T14:12:34.448+02:00JING-JIN-JI L’EREDITÀ URBANA DI XI JINPING<span style="font-size: large;">L'anteprima della <a href="http://www.limesonline.com/cartaceo/jing-jin-ji-leredita-urbana-di-xi-jinping?prv=true" target="_blank">mia analisi </a>sull'urbanizzazione in Cina, con un focus sul progetto Jing-Jin-Ji, nell'ultimo di Limes dedicato "<a href="http://www.limesonline.com/sommari-rivista/indagine-sulle-periferie" target="_blank">Indagine sulle periferie</a>". </span><br />
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<br />Giorgio Cuscitohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14965827718771456940noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8486477718764400497.post-22999970689640253152016-05-05T19:32:00.003+02:002016-05-05T19:39:45.452+02:00La rivista francescana e il messaggio per la Cina <div style="font-family: Georgia; max-width: 100%; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: large;">Sembra proseguire il riavvicinamento tra Pechino e la Santa Sede. Il mio commento per la <a href="http://www.limesonline.com/ue-turchia-visto-migranti-russia-ettaro-terra-notizie-oggi/91526#cnt3" target="_blank">rassegna quotidiana di Limes</a>.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"> In un’intervista alla rivista “San Francesco” dei Frati di Assisi, il segretario di Stato della Santa Sede Pietro Parolin <a href="https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=http-3A__www.sanfrancescopatronoditalia.it_notizie_attualita_rivista-2Dsan-2Dfrancesco-2Dsbarca-2Din-2Dcina-2D37834-23.VysgTGOYeCQ&d=CwMFaQ&c=tUIXUh5BJuGeCwZVj7ChnbhB_cIdD6lQgMfidODHLEk&r=8ttJZ1GHeOrGX75V5mpCaqETQMleZb89WJEg4Ni4kjM&m=ANjsn-JCE7-aNFG19h5IFlMZRsfz6EBY_k-uZTRzAO4&s=AgnKmFyFlPP7wfvUxXG95tQNaEoMjBoWKP1OyVE_MBE&e=" style="max-width: 100%; text-decoration: none;">ha affermato</a> che il cammino “non è ancora concluso”, ma che le “prospettive sono promettenti”. L’affermazione acquista maggior rilievo se si pensa che entro fine mese questo periodico sarà anche tradotto in mandarino e pubblicato in Cina con cadenza trimestrale.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">La copertina del primo numero in cinese <a href="https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=http-3A__www.sanfrancescopatronoditalia.it_notizie_attualita_rivista-2Dsan-2Dfrancesco-2Dsbarca-2Din-2Dcina-2D37834-23.VysgTGOYeCQ&d=CwMFaQ&c=tUIXUh5BJuGeCwZVj7ChnbhB_cIdD6lQgMfidODHLEk&r=8ttJZ1GHeOrGX75V5mpCaqETQMleZb89WJEg4Ni4kjM&m=ANjsn-JCE7-aNFG19h5IFlMZRsfz6EBY_k-uZTRzAO4&s=AgnKmFyFlPP7wfvUxXG95tQNaEoMjBoWKP1OyVE_MBE&e=" style="max-width: 100%; text-decoration: none;">rappresenterà</a> papa Francesco davanti alla chiesa dedicata a <a href="http://www.limesonline.com/il-viaggio-di-matteo-ricci/59275" style="max-width: 100%; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">Matteo Ricci</a> – gesuita come l’attuale pontefice – figura molto apprezzata in Cina perché aveva abbracciato gli usi e costumi cinesi, capendo che per evangelizzare il paese non bisognava spazzarli via, ma trovare il modo di farli coesistere con la religione cristiana.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">La Santa Sede sembra tendere nuovamente la mano a Pechino dopo che a febbraio papa Francesco ha rilasciato <a href="http://www.limesonline.com/la-prima-intervista-di-papa-francesco-sulla-cina/89412" style="max-width: 100%; text-decoration: none;">la sua prima storica intervista</a> sulla Cina. Il pontefice ha detto che non bisogna temere l’ascesa della Cina e ha fatto gli auguri per il capodanno lunare al presidente cinese Xi Jinping (prima volta nella storia). L’intervista ha avuto un <a href="https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=http-3A__world.people.com.cn_n1_2016_0203_c1002-2D28107474.html&d=CwMFaQ&c=tUIXUh5BJuGeCwZVj7ChnbhB_cIdD6lQgMfidODHLEk&r=8ttJZ1GHeOrGX75V5mpCaqETQMleZb89WJEg4Ni4kjM&m=ANjsn-JCE7-aNFG19h5IFlMZRsfz6EBY_k-uZTRzAO4&s=lzfDGf94LweOdNg5mqGDGDRZ_b5-1iStLCBEphW-DIE&e=" style="max-width: 100%; text-decoration: none;">riscontro positivo</a> sui media cinesi e Pechino <a href="https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=http-3A__www.globaltimes.cn_content_970460.shtml&d=CwMFaQ&c=tUIXUh5BJuGeCwZVj7ChnbhB_cIdD6lQgMfidODHLEk&r=8ttJZ1GHeOrGX75V5mpCaqETQMleZb89WJEg4Ni4kjM&m=ANjsn-JCE7-aNFG19h5IFlMZRsfz6EBY_k-uZTRzAO4&s=YFO3n-PikHbwYhaYww8h3UW7rwRKC6KUa4GG1gzYyL8&e=" style="max-width: 100%; text-decoration: none;">ha di fatto riconosciuto</a> un disgelo nei rapporti con la Santa Sede tramite il tabloid semigovernativo in lingua inglese <em style="max-width: 100%;">Global Times</em>.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Due sono gli ostacoli alla riapertura delle relazioni diplomatiche sino-vaticane.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">In primo luogo la Santa Sede intrattiene rapporti diplomatici con Taiwan, considerata da Pechino ancora una provincia della Repubblica popolare. In realtà, già nei <a href="https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=https-3A__wikileaks.org_plusd_cables_05VATICAN512-5Fa.html&d=CwMFaQ&c=tUIXUh5BJuGeCwZVj7ChnbhB_cIdD6lQgMfidODHLEk&r=8ttJZ1GHeOrGX75V5mpCaqETQMleZb89WJEg4Ni4kjM&m=ANjsn-JCE7-aNFG19h5IFlMZRsfz6EBY_k-uZTRzAO4&s=-BeuGErl4l8NMl88OjvE5AANEsOKjD8Nr1958A4P0Yc&e=" style="max-width: 100%; text-decoration: none;">negoziati segreti sino-vaticani</a> del 2005 (cui ha partecipato proprio Parolin), la Chiesa sembrava disponibile a uno spostamento della nunziatura da Taiwan alla Cina continentale. Ma non è da escludere che sia proprio Pechino a non volere compiere questo passo per timore che alimenti le tensioni con i fedeli della Chiesa “sotterranea” cinese, fedele al papa e perseguitata dalle autorità locali.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Il secondo è la nomina dei vescovi in Cina, rivendicata sia da Pechino sia dalla Santa Sede. La Cina non accetterà il totale controllo della Chiesa in tale ambito. Il compromesso qui è necessario. Secondo alcuni anonimi esperti citati dal <em style="max-width: 100%;"><a href="https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=http-3A__www.globaltimes.cn_content_970460.shtml&d=CwMFaQ&c=tUIXUh5BJuGeCwZVj7ChnbhB_cIdD6lQgMfidODHLEk&r=8ttJZ1GHeOrGX75V5mpCaqETQMleZb89WJEg4Ni4kjM&m=ANjsn-JCE7-aNFG19h5IFlMZRsfz6EBY_k-uZTRzAO4&s=YFO3n-PikHbwYhaYww8h3UW7rwRKC6KUa4GG1gzYyL8&e=" style="max-width: 100%; text-decoration: none;">Global Times</a></em> una soluzione potrebbe essere il “modello cinese” di selezione, secondo cui la Santa Sede approva i vescovi proposti dalle autorità cinesi.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Pare questo il punto più importante e complicato dei rapporti sino-vaticani e la ragione principale dei messaggi distensivi rivolti dalla Chiesa all’Impero del Centro.</span></div>
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<span style="max-width: 100%;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;"><span style="font-size: large;">Per approfondire:</span></strong></span></div>
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<span style="color: black; font-size: large;"><a href="http://www.limesonline.com/cartaceo/il-papa-che-piace-ai-cinesi" style="max-width: 100%; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">Il papa che piace ai cinesi</a>, <em style="max-width: 100%;">di G. Cuscito</em></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Francesco attrae l’opinione pubblica cinese con la critica alla corruzione e al materialismo. La scelta di Parolin è un segnale di apertura a Pechino. L’accordo fra Santa Sede e Repubblica Popolare Cinese sarà incentivato dalla beatificazione del gesuita Matteo Ricci.</span></div>
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<span style="color: black; font-size: large;"><a href="http://www.limesonline.com/cartaceo/lavventura-dei-cattolici-in-cina-2" style="max-width: 100%; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">L’avventura dei cattolici in Cina</a>, <em style="max-width: 100%;">di G. Valente</em> [2005]</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Il dialogo fra Vaticano e Pechino sta prendendo corpo, insieme alla ricomposizione di fatto della frattura fra Chiesa clandestina e Chiesa ufficiale. Una storia di martirio e di compromessi. Le diverse linee nella curia romana, attraverso documenti inediti.</span></div>
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Giorgio Cuscitohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14965827718771456940noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8486477718764400497.post-29908610417085021012016-05-03T19:13:00.002+02:002016-05-03T19:13:32.380+02:00Sospeso il Donald Trump della Cina<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
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<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;">Il magnate cinese Ren Zhiqiang è
stato sospeso dal Partito comunista dopo aver rilasciato alcuni commenti sul
presidente Xi Jinping. Il mio commento per la <a href="http://www.limesonline.com/la-lunga-marcia-verso-il-refendum-in-venezuela-notizie-oggi/91449#cnt3" target="_blank">rassegna geopolitica odierna di Limes.</a> </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: Arimo;"><span style="font-size: 23px;"><br /></span></span><span style="font-family: Arimo; font-size: 17pt;"><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhTLct4b-sA3YBsZxIKKY8yGB9SDQnncihTbiV4gRWrD1dyHQPG36jEvNXejJwhgfAhQMxR3cIde1IWEl1We-W_DziHkt8XXP4wDeSvRy3HLsY_vOa5Syx1Qi3y_tIp-46IzzmGduwTLNM/s1600/Schermata+2016-05-03+alle+19.07.10.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="460" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhTLct4b-sA3YBsZxIKKY8yGB9SDQnncihTbiV4gRWrD1dyHQPG36jEvNXejJwhgfAhQMxR3cIde1IWEl1We-W_DziHkt8XXP4wDeSvRy3HLsY_vOa5Syx1Qi3y_tIp-46IzzmGduwTLNM/s640/Schermata+2016-05-03+alle+19.07.10.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Ren Zhiqiang. Fonte: Wall Street Journal</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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<!--EndFragment--></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;">Il “Donald Trump” cinese Ren Zhiqiang
<a href="https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=http-3A__news.sina.com.cn_c_nd_2016-2D05-2D02_doc-2Difxrtzte9875772.shtml&d=CwMFaQ&c=tUIXUh5BJuGeCwZVj7ChnbhB_cIdD6lQgMfidODHLEk&r=8ttJZ1GHeOrGX75V5mpCaqETQMleZb89WJEg4Ni4kjM&m=R8vVVGo92R5m74RuVokXCT0k0j_Yy64CZIHY2kyA2-M&s=yaLqQPB6ZUb25p2-zDvL97JwhdZe0WQwtKMIO_RYhjw&e="><span style="text-decoration: none;">è stato sospeso</span></a>
per un anno dal Partito comunista cinese (Pcc) <a href="https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=http-3A__shanghaiist.com_2016_02_22_ren-5Fzhiqiang-5Fvs-5Fxi-5Fjinping.php&d=CwMFaQ&c=tUIXUh5BJuGeCwZVj7ChnbhB_cIdD6lQgMfidODHLEk&r=8ttJZ1GHeOrGX75V5mpCaqETQMleZb89WJEg4Ni4kjM&m=R8vVVGo92R5m74RuVokXCT0k0j_Yy64CZIHY2kyA2-M&s=roZ1j4y6PbB35MCanRQJcO08xY6dB8XNgJPC1_Z7qVw&e="><span style="text-decoration: none;">per aver
criticato</span></a> a febbraio su Weibo il presidente Xi Jinping, dopo che
questi aveva chiesto lealtà ai media.</span><span style="color: #535353; font-family: Arimo; font-size: 17pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;">Prima che il suo account sul social
network fosse chiuso, Ren aveva ben 37 milioni di <i>follower</i> e grazie ai suoi commenti
sempre taglienti si era guadagnato il soprannome di “cannone”.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;">Per lui, Xi ha scelto una sanzione
più morbida del solito, considerato che tramite la campagna anticorruzione
molti dei suoi antagonisti politici sono stati espulsi dal Pcc ed arrestati.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;">Il caso di Ren potrebbe rientrare nel
conflitto intrapartitico tra Xi e Wang Qishan da una parte e Liu Yunshan
dall’altra.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;">Wang è un “principe rosso” (discendente
di funzionari comunisti di alto rango prima della Rivoluzione culturale, come
il presidente), capo della Commissione centrale per l’ispezione
disciplinare (Ccid, che guida la lotta alla corruzione) e amico di Ren.
Liu è <a href="https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=http-3A__www.brookings.edu_about_centers_china_top-2Dfuture-2Dleaders_liu-5Fyunshan&d=CwMFaQ&c=tUIXUh5BJuGeCwZVj7ChnbhB_cIdD6lQgMfidODHLEk&r=8ttJZ1GHeOrGX75V5mpCaqETQMleZb89WJEg4Ni4kjM&m=R8vVVGo92R5m74RuVokXCT0k0j_Yy64CZIHY2kyA2-M&s=pIwcCFlOFke41lxRFjANM4dob_C-Aw-jV_UEYBOma0c&e="><span style="text-decoration: none;">considerato</span></a>
un <i>tuanpai</i> (fazione che si è
fatta strada tramite la Lega della gioventù comunista cinese e in contrasto con
i “principi rossi”) ed è capo del dipartimento per la Propaganda. Xi
vorrebbe limitare il suo potere. Le dure critiche rivolte al magnate cinese da
parte dei media potrebbero essere state stimolate da Liu per colpire
indirettamente Wang e il presidente.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;">È probabile che Xi abbia optato per
la “sospensione” con l’obiettivo di punire Ren senza danneggiare
l’immagine del capo del Ccid e la sua. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;">Potrebbe trattarsi quindi di un modo per
non alimentare la tensione – già alta – all’interno del Pcc; con un
occhio all’umore degli intellettuali, verso cui nei giorni scorsi <a href="https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=http-3A__www.chinanews.com_gn_2016_05-2D01_7855152.shtml&d=CwMFaQ&c=tUIXUh5BJuGeCwZVj7ChnbhB_cIdD6lQgMfidODHLEk&r=8ttJZ1GHeOrGX75V5mpCaqETQMleZb89WJEg4Ni4kjM&m=R8vVVGo92R5m74RuVokXCT0k0j_Yy64CZIHY2kyA2-M&s=wW_SDPaWJeCPtGPslnBi0604I0EBgMiZBoGoR0PyqTg&e="><span style="text-decoration: none;">aveva annunciato</span></a> piena
fiducia.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="35" SemiHidden="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 6"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="19" QFormat="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="21" QFormat="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="31" QFormat="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="32" QFormat="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="33" QFormat="true" Name="Book Title"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="37" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" Name="Bibliography"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" QFormat="true" Name="TOC Heading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="41" Name="Plain Table 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="42" Name="Plain Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="43" Name="Plain Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="44" Name="Plain Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="45" Name="Plain Table 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="40" Name="Grid Table Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46" Name="Grid Table 1 Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2"/>
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Giorgio Cuscitohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14965827718771456940noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8486477718764400497.post-69828392333966237582016-05-02T18:52:00.001+02:002016-05-02T18:53:25.121+02:00Le mani cinesi sulle ong straniere<div data-mce-style="text-align: justify;" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: large;">La Repubblica popolare ha introdotto una legge che limita fortemente
il raggio d'azione delle organizzazioni non governative. Il mio commento per <a href="http://www.limesonline.com/ttip-leaks-greenpeace-usa-ue-notizie-oggi/91411">Limes</a>. </span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjGEDx_q6Gxj-u4UxUMh5Kof_ybB656PUNAhcESKt9P7TTGBXrzoeDgCmfa7saOwtUnEYcVDHVEdvNMbalvsA5cE2BfIK8NB7yJhUR35-dg1xC98jCRFVRoYfUdr_Zg0j4eYh6Jpk3tvA4/s1600/Schermata+2016-05-02+alle+18.45.15.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjGEDx_q6Gxj-u4UxUMh5Kof_ybB656PUNAhcESKt9P7TTGBXrzoeDgCmfa7saOwtUnEYcVDHVEdvNMbalvsA5cE2BfIK8NB7yJhUR35-dg1xC98jCRFVRoYfUdr_Zg0j4eYh6Jpk3tvA4/s640/Schermata+2016-05-02+alle+18.45.15.png" width="452" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">[Un grafico sull'aumento delle Ong negli ultimi anni (ad oggi 7 mila)]</td></tr>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Pechino ha ufficialmente <a data-mce-href="https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=http-3A__politics.people.com.cn_n1_2016_0429_c1001-2D28313123.html&d=CwMFaQ&c=tUIXUh5BJuGeCwZVj7ChnbhB_cIdD6lQgMfidODHLEk&r=8ttJZ1GHeOrGX75V5mpCaqETQMleZb89WJEg4Ni4kjM&m=UEp6PtXIjM4n-Y0HjE2syCBFe66C134pIB6v0z1Ovtc&s=bpsuDsYoPXbEWj3igwNLMsbNLDKCNg3F_YzbKl43puQ&e=" href="https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=http-3A__politics.people.com.cn_n1_2016_0429_c1001-2D28313123.html&d=CwMFaQ&c=tUIXUh5BJuGeCwZVj7ChnbhB_cIdD6lQgMfidODHLEk&r=8ttJZ1GHeOrGX75V5mpCaqETQMleZb89WJEg4Ni4kjM&m=UEp6PtXIjM4n-Y0HjE2syCBFe66C134pIB6v0z1Ovtc&s=bpsuDsYoPXbEWj3igwNLMsbNLDKCNg3F_YzbKl43puQ&e=" target="_blank">approvato</a>
la legge per disciplinare le attività delle circa 7 mila organizzazioni
non governative (ong) che lavorano nel paese. </span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">I criteri della normativa sono piuttosto rigidi e la definizione di ong include fondazioni, gruppi sociali e <em>think-tank</em>. Molte di esse avevano sinora operato in una sorta di “zona grigia”, grazie alla mancanza di una regolamentazione specifica.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Dal
1° gennaio 2017, per operare nella Cina continentale, le ong dovranno
registrarsi ed essere autorizzate dalla polizia e dal ministero della
Pubblica Sicurezza. Qualora non abbiano qui un ufficio di
rappresentanza, dovranno trovare un “partner" cinese (organi di Stato,
istituzioni pubbliche, organizzazioni sociali) con cui affiliarsi.
L’obbligo è previsto anche per le organizzazioni che provengono da Hong
Kong, Macao e Taiwan.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">La
normativa vieta il coinvolgimento in e la sponsorizzazione di attività
commerciali, politiche e religiose e prevede che i fondi che finanziano
le organizzazioni siano dichiarati e in regola con il diritto cinese.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">L’obiettivo
della legge, ampiamente criticata in Occidente anche prima della sua
approvazione, è formalmente consentire alle ong di operare in Cina senza
“mettere in pericolo la sicurezza nazionale”. Nel concreto, essa
dovrebbe impedire ai paesi occidentali di servirsi di tali
organizzazioni per attività di spionaggio e per pressare Pechino
riguardo temi particolarmente sensibili, come i diritti umani o quelli
dei lavoratori.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">L’introduzione della legge dipende anche dal rallentamento dell’economia cinese <a data-mce-href="https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=http-3A__www.stats.gov.cn_tjsj_zxfb_201604_t20160416-5F1344514.html&d=CwMFaQ&c=tUIXUh5BJuGeCwZVj7ChnbhB_cIdD6lQgMfidODHLEk&r=8ttJZ1GHeOrGX75V5mpCaqETQMleZb89WJEg4Ni4kjM&m=UEp6PtXIjM4n-Y0HjE2syCBFe66C134pIB6v0z1Ovtc&s=VuWazWxxrXm8C6YskH17_l1vVcTXLnSBz0g4wTYheUA&e=" href="https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=http-3A__www.stats.gov.cn_tjsj_zxfb_201604_t20160416-5F1344514.html&d=CwMFaQ&c=tUIXUh5BJuGeCwZVj7ChnbhB_cIdD6lQgMfidODHLEk&r=8ttJZ1GHeOrGX75V5mpCaqETQMleZb89WJEg4Ni4kjM&m=UEp6PtXIjM4n-Y0HjE2syCBFe66C134pIB6v0z1Ovtc&s=VuWazWxxrXm8C6YskH17_l1vVcTXLnSBz0g4wTYheUA&e=">(+6.7% nel 1°trimestre dell’anno</a>), che sembra aver influito in qualche misura <a data-mce-href="https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=http-3A__maps.clb.org.hk_strikes_en&d=CwMFaQ&c=tUIXUh5BJuGeCwZVj7ChnbhB_cIdD6lQgMfidODHLEk&r=8ttJZ1GHeOrGX75V5mpCaqETQMleZb89WJEg4Ni4kjM&m=UEp6PtXIjM4n-Y0HjE2syCBFe66C134pIB6v0z1Ovtc&s=ghklm-aK8sFhkGb2_-whgbdQTKUa5WHZSScvUkhDzUs&e=" href="https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=http-3A__maps.clb.org.hk_strikes_en&d=CwMFaQ&c=tUIXUh5BJuGeCwZVj7ChnbhB_cIdD6lQgMfidODHLEk&r=8ttJZ1GHeOrGX75V5mpCaqETQMleZb89WJEg4Ni4kjM&m=UEp6PtXIjM4n-Y0HjE2syCBFe66C134pIB6v0z1Ovtc&s=ghklm-aK8sFhkGb2_-whgbdQTKUa5WHZSScvUkhDzUs&e=">sull’aumento degli scioperi</a> nel paese tra fine 2015 e inizio 2016.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="text-align: justify;">Il presidente Xi Jinping, </span><a data-mce-href="http://www.limesonline.com/cina-xi-jinping-mao-culto-personalita-media-potere/91258" href="http://www.limesonline.com/cina-xi-jinping-mao-culto-personalita-media-potere/91258" style="text-align: justify;">che ha consolidato notevolmente il suo potere</a><span style="text-align: justify;">, sa che la strada verso la “nuova normalità” cinese - </span><a data-mce-href="http://www.limesonline.com/le-9-sfide-della-cina-di-xi-nel-2016/88839" href="http://www.limesonline.com/le-9-sfide-della-cina-di-xi-nel-2016/88839" style="text-align: justify;">fatta di cambiamenti economici e sociali</a><span style="text-align: justify;"> - è piuttosto delicata e vuole ridurre al minimo i fattori destabilizzanti.</span> </span>Giorgio Cuscitohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14965827718771456940noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8486477718764400497.post-56473528674956777012016-04-30T12:39:00.005+02:002016-04-30T15:17:57.352+02:00Permesso negato: la Cina impedisce alla portaerei Usa l'approdo a Hong Kong<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: large;">Pechino <a href="http://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy-defence/article/1940083/us-aircraft-carrier-denied-entry-hong-kong-american">ha negato l'ingresso</a> nel porto dell'ex colonia britannica alla portaerei statunitense USS John C. Stennis.</span><br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEizW9i313kR7IzwxTIjLWvo-wrFuOJl9fq-J21TpWZPIt3QWcc6_Wc4qNAau8_LuYEO6FrU85YPEoRc5a7x3wKvngAI4JFLGljZ159HelxY9MYYU35entLuCSavMOi6tHXDfXxpFmvd_ho/s1600/USS_John_C._Stennis%252C_2007May11.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="512" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEizW9i313kR7IzwxTIjLWvo-wrFuOJl9fq-J21TpWZPIt3QWcc6_Wc4qNAau8_LuYEO6FrU85YPEoRc5a7x3wKvngAI4JFLGljZ159HelxY9MYYU35entLuCSavMOi6tHXDfXxpFmvd_ho/s640/USS_John_C._Stennis%252C_2007May11.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="background-color: #f9f9f9; font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 12px;">La USS </span><i style="font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 12px;">John C. Stennis. Fonte: Wikipedia</i></td></tr>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Il 15 aprile scorso la nave era stata visitata dal capo della Difesa Usa Ash Carter, mentre si trovava a 100 chilometri Ovest dall'isola filippina di Luzon, nel conteso Mar Cinese Meridionale. </span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Pechino afferma la sua sovranità su circa l'80% di questo bacino d'acqua, il cui valore strategico dipende non solo dalla presenza di risorse energetiche (petrolio e gas) e di pescato, ma anche dal fatto che attraverso esso passa la maggior parte del commercio da e per l'Impero del Centro. </span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Il governo cinese probabilmente non ha gradito l'episodio della portaerei, al punto di impedirle l'ingresso nel porto di Hong Kong.</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;">Non solo. La scorsa settimana caccia Usa hanno volato in prossimità dell'atollo Scarborough, conteso tra Repubblica popolare, Taiwan e Filippine. Qui</span><span style="font-size: large;"> i cinesi <a href="http://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy-defence/article/1938277/china-build-atoll-contested-south-china-sea-source-says">dovrebbero costruire</a> entro l'anno </span><span style="font-size: large;">un'isola artificiale, che si aggiungerebbe a quelle <a href="http://www.limesonline.com/cartaceo/la-gara-dei-castelli-di-sabbia">già realizzate</a> negli arcipelaghi Paracel e Spratly.</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;">Per Pechino e Manila si tratta di un momento delicato. Tra maggio e giugno la Corte permanente di arbitrato presso L’Aia si pronuncerà sulla loro disputa, anche se i cinesi hanno detto più volte <a href="http://english.cntv.cn/2015/10/30/VIDE1446182041868725.shtml">che non accetteranno</a> l'esito. Qualora questo fosse negativo, il processo di costruzione dell'isola artificiale in prossimità </span><span style="font-size: large;">dell'atollo Scarborough potrebbe essere più rapido del previsto. </span><span style="font-size: large;"> </span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;">Per approfondire: </span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large; font-weight: normal;"><a href="http://www.limesonline.com/cina-e-usa-in-rotta-di-collisione-nel-grande-gioco-dellasia-pacifico/88181?prv=true">Cina e Usa in rotta di collisione nel Grande Gioco dell’Asia-Pacifico</a> </span><span style="font-size: large; text-align: justify;"> </span></span></h1>
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Giorgio Cuscitohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14965827718771456940noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8486477718764400497.post-47313331839265045492016-04-29T09:39:00.000+02:002016-04-29T09:39:39.322+02:00Xi come Mao? Media, potere e culto della personalità nella Cina di oggi<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: large;">Le prime righe della mia analisi per Limes dedicata all'attuale presidente cinese. Credo che non si possa ancora parlare di "culto" di Xi.</span></div>
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<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhCMwH98UAklViw11pfIrUluLv4khjJxCQrtWwH95-YZXu3PRVyHvkBsKgbG70_NOOO82TYFAM87dhLv82pYjk82jyjiqhuTPE-QWsWXXE5EIyr7gaaHWW0Urtm-67ih5UXjpIoD4RSUhs/s1600/xi_deng_mao_comic_820.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="395" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhCMwH98UAklViw11pfIrUluLv4khjJxCQrtWwH95-YZXu3PRVyHvkBsKgbG70_NOOO82TYFAM87dhLv82pYjk82jyjiqhuTPE-QWsWXXE5EIyr7gaaHWW0Urtm-67ih5UXjpIoD4RSUhs/s640/xi_deng_mao_comic_820.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">[Illustrazione di Henri Wong apparsa sul <em style="border: 0px; color: #666666; font-family: arimo; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: left; vertical-align: baseline;"><a href="http://www.scmp.com/news/china/article/1579591/xi-jinping-wants-be-seen-par-mao-zedong-and-deng-xiaoping" rel="prettyPhoto" style="border: 0px; color: #333333; cursor: pointer; font-family: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">South China Morning Post</a></em>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Il presidente cinese ha chiesto a giornali e televisioni di “portare il cognome” del Partito Comunista. Fioccano i paragoni con il Grande Timoniere, ma le critiche clandestine e ufficiali rivolte all’attuale capo di Stato dimostrano che la sua leadership – ora che Pechino deve affrontare riforme decisive – non è altrettanto salda.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-weight: 700; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Il “nucleo” (<em style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">hexin</em>) della leadership e lo “zio Xi” (Xi <em style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">dada</em>): </span>questi alcuni dei soprannomi attribuiti dagli organi di stampa cinesi al <a class="internal-tag-link" href="http://www.limesonline.com/protagonisti/xi-jinping" style="border-bottom-left-radius: 5px; border-bottom-right-radius: 5px; border-top-left-radius: 5px; border-top-right-radius: 5px; border: 1px solid rgb(8, 123, 187); cursor: pointer; font-family: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 1px 5px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">presidente Xi Jinping</a> in una campagna mediatica volta a esaltarne l’immagine.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-weight: 700; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Molti sostengono che con Xi sia tornato in auge il culto della personalità dell’epoca di Mao Zedong.</span>Eppure, come vedremo, permangono delle differenze di fondo. Le strategie del presidente non sono condivise da tutti i membri del Partito.</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
<span style="font-size: large;">Per continuare a leggere vai su <a href="http://www.limesonline.com/cina-xi-jinping-mao-culto-personalita-media-potere/91258">http://www.limesonline.com/cina-xi-jinping-mao-culto-personalita-media-potere/91258 </a></span>
Giorgio Cuscitohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14965827718771456940noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8486477718764400497.post-76030064239460825952016-04-24T10:53:00.003+02:002016-04-28T15:20:23.795+02:00Difficoltà per le nuove vie della seta?<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: large;">Sul sito</span> <a href="http://dxw.ifeng.com/shilu/xushanda/1.shtml" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large;">ifeng.com</span></a><span style="font-size: large; text-align: justify;">, Xu Shanda, ex membro di alto livello del governo, ha affermato che la Cina sta affrontando difficoltà finanziarie nel portare avanti il progetto infrastrutturale e commerciale "una cintura, una via", ma che questo è indispensabile per alleviare la sovraccapacità industriale.</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEipqiactJ-3m8BrTzMfD5ESQALo0a6fbAFDHaqhY7o-UpcWhe1WAwHvTSq89TPvNR6jxmPNJAq0ypZ_-NKjl3zwGj6p5BI6ZtrY5JUOv65o1lEUks-zSH7X2MCQZw6sgyHdK3LFwjSZRD0/s1600/Schermata+2016-02-21+alle+16.32.54.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="379" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEipqiactJ-3m8BrTzMfD5ESQALo0a6fbAFDHaqhY7o-UpcWhe1WAwHvTSq89TPvNR6jxmPNJAq0ypZ_-NKjl3zwGj6p5BI6ZtrY5JUOv65o1lEUks-zSH7X2MCQZw6sgyHdK3LFwjSZRD0/s640/Schermata+2016-02-21+alle+16.32.54.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Il progetto "una cintura, una via,". In rosso la rotta terrestre, in blu quella marittima. Fonte: Xinhua.</td></tr>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Questa caratterizza settori importanti come
quello siderurgico e fotovoltaico. Gli investimenti di Pechino in questi
settori chiave ha determinato negli anni passati una capacità produttiva di
gran lunga </span><span style="font-size: large;">superiore alla domanda domestica ed estera.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">"Se non seguiremo questa strada, la domanda
estera si ridurrà, mettendo pressione tremenda sulla produzione interna.
Quindi, nonostante le difficoltà, abbiamo bisogno di attenersi a questa strategia
economica all'estero”, ha detto Xu. </span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;">Raramente funzionari cinese in pensione o in attività rilasciano simili dichiarazioni sul nuove vie della seta, che rappresentano il progetto più importante del presidente Xi Jinping in politica estera, il pilastro geopolitico su cui la Repubblica popolare vuole basare il suo ordine mondiale. </span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;">Qui l'articolo originale in cinese: </span></div>
<span style="font-size: large;"><a href="http://dxw.ifeng.com/shilu/xushanda/1.shtml">http://dxw.ifeng.com/shilu/xushanda/1.shtml</a>
</span><br />
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<div>
<span style="font-size: large;">Qui l'articolo di Reuters sull'argomento: <a href="http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSL3N17P1SB">http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSL3N17P1SB </a></span></div>
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Giorgio Cuscitohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14965827718771456940noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8486477718764400497.post-84280121549751635832016-04-21T12:17:00.000+02:002016-04-24T09:48:48.897+02:00Xi Jinping nominato comandante in capo del centro di comando di battaglia congiunto della Cmc<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: large;">Per la prima volta in tuta mimetica, il presidente cinese <a href="http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2016-04/20/c_135298093.htm" target="_blank">ha visitato</a> il quartiergenerale del centro di comando di battaglia congiunto della Commissione miliatare centrale (Cmc) (organo al vertice dell'Esercito popolare di Liberazione, Epl) di cui da ieri è ufficialmente il Comandante in capo. </span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Questa carica si aggiunge a quella di presidente della Repubblica popolare, segretario del Partito e segretario della Cmc dell'Epl.</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;">Il titolo di "comandante in capo" implica funzioni differenti rispetto a quest'ultima. La Commissione militare centrale infatti si occupa della gestione complessiva delle Forze armate, non è un organo di comando in tempo di guerra. Il centro di comando congiunto invece si occupa del combattimento e delle strategie relative, secondo Xu Guanyu, ex general maggiore dell'Epl.</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;">Xi ha sottolineato che le Forze armate devono continuare a migliorare la capacità di condurre operazioni congiunte, essere "assolutamente leali, piene di risorse in combattimento, efficienti nel comandare, coraggiose e capaci di vincere le guerre". </span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">La nuova carica del presidente rientra nell'ambito della riforma dell'Esercito popolare di liberazione iniziata a gennaio scorso e testimonia quanto velocemente questi stia consolidando il suo potere anche nelle Forze armate.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Al momento la riorganizzazione si concentra su 6 novità: </span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">1. abbandono della struttura esercito-centrica affinché le Forze armate conducano operazioni congiunte;</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">2. riorganizzazione della Commissione militare centrale (da 4 dipartimenti a 15 agenzie);</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">3. riorganizzazione delle "regioni militari", ora diventate "teatri di guerra" e ridotte da 7 a 5;</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">4. introduzione per la prima volta di un quartiergenerale per la Forza di terra;</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">5. sostituzione del Corpo della 2° artiglieria con <a href="http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2016-01/01/c_134970564.htm" target="_blank">la Forza missilistica</a>;</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">6. introduzione della <a href="https://www.blogger.com/"><span id="goog_1987065926"></span>Forza per il supporto strategico<span id="goog_1987065927"></span></a>;</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Ho discusso in maniera approfondita questi argomenti per Limes (<a href="http://www.limesonline.com/meno-esercito-piu-xi-la-riforma-delle-forze-armate-in-cina/89741" target="_blank">qui l'articolo</a>). </span></div>
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<br />Giorgio Cuscitohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14965827718771456940noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8486477718764400497.post-29770965585798284882016-04-20T11:30:00.003+02:002016-04-20T11:30:38.271+02:00Chi è la manager di Twitter in Cina<div style="border: 0px; line-height: 23px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;">Il mio commento per <a href="http://www.limesonline.com/i-veri-padroni-di-kabul/91132" target="_blank">Limes</a> sull'ex ingegnere militare scelta per dirigere Twitter in Cina. </span><br />
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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Fonte: http://english.sina.com/buz/s/2016-04-15/doc-ifxriqqx2497303.shtml</td></tr>
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<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;">La scelta di assumere Kathy Chen come direttore di Twitter per la “Grande Cina” (quella Continentale, Taiwan, Hong Kong e Macao) non è dettata da un’imminente introduzione del social network nella Repubblica popolare, dove è al momento bloccato.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;">Piuttosto, dipende dal fatto che molte aziende cinesi utilizzano o vogliono utilizzare Twitter per farsi conoscere fuori dai confini nazionali. Pertanto non c’è da stupirsi se nei suoi primi tweet, fortemente criticati, Chen abbia sottolineato l’interesse a cooperare con l’agenzia di stampa Xinhua e Cctv (che hanno un account Twitter) per <a href="https://twitter.com/kathychen2016/status/720856644670791680" style="border: 0px; cursor: pointer; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">raccontare</a> la storia della “Grande Cina” al mondo. Una frase che fa eco a quella <a href="http://www.chinanews.com/gn/2016/02-22/7767233.shtml" style="border: 0px; cursor: pointer; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">pronunciata</a> dal presidente Xi Jinping circa un mese fa.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;">Suscita qualche perplessità il passato dell’ingegnere, la quale, oltre ad aver lavorato per Microsoft e Cisco Systems, ha guidato una compagnia che sviluppava software antivirus e antispam collegata al ministero della Pubblica Sicurezza (Gongan bu, che si occupa dell’intelligence domestica e del monitoraggio quotidiano di Internet).</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;">Tra i suoi clienti vi era anche la National Computer Network Emergency Response Technical Team/Co-ordination Center of China, che gestisce la “Grande muraglia di fuoco”, l’apparato di controllo e censura del Web nella Repubblica popolare. Inoltre, negli anni precedenti ha svolto il ruolo di ingegnere junior nell’Esercito popolare di Liberazione.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;">Il curriculum di Chen non è stato apprezzato sul Web. Alcuni utenti <a href="http://chinadigitaltimes.net/2016/04/twitter-users-express-concern-new-china-position/?utm_source=China+Digital+Times&utm_campaign=423c020eb5-RSS_EMAIL" style="border: 0px; cursor: pointer; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">temono</a> che la sua assunzione consenta agli apparati di sicurezza cinesi di monitorare in maniera più approfondita Twitter, considerato uno degli spazi privilegiati dai critici del Partito e dai dissidenti che vivono all’estero.</span><br />
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<span style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="border: 0px; font-weight: 700; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Per approfondire:</span></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="color: black; font-family: inherit; font-size: large;"><a href="http://www.limesonline.com/cartaceo/la-rete-degli-spiriti-che-difende-internet-in-cina" style="border: 0px; cursor: pointer; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">La rete degli spiriti che “difende” Internet in Cina</a>, <em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">di G. Cuscito</em></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;">Pechino controlla il Web intrecciando intelligence, controspionaggio, censura e manipolazione. L’obiettivo è tacitare il dissenso per mantenere la stabilità del paese e preservare il primato del partito. I sistemi di filtraggio e gli escamotages del popolo della Rete.</span></div>
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Giorgio Cuscitohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14965827718771456940noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8486477718764400497.post-74136023657931179522016-04-18T11:26:00.002+02:002016-05-02T23:08:42.457+02:00Pechino-Tianjin-Hebei: in arrivo 23 nuove linee ferroviarie<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: large;">23 nuove linee ferroviarie saranno costruite entro il 2030 per collegare Beijing, Tianjin e lo Hebei. <span style="text-align: justify;">Nei piani del governo cinese, le tre amministrazioni saranno sviluppate in maniera "coordinata".</span></span><br />
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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: small;">Il progetto Jing-Jin-Ji. In rosso gli assi di sviluppo. Fonte: QQ. http://bj.jjj.qq.com/a/20150601/033375.htm</span></td></tr>
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<span style="font-size: large;">L'obiettivo è creare una megacittà da 130 milioni di abitanti, nell'ambito del grande piano di urbanizzazione dell'Impero del Centro. </span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Le nuove infrastrutture menzionate saranno lunghe complessivamente 3.400 chilometri. </span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Ritornerò sull'argomento molto presto con un articolo approfondito sui risvolti geopolitici del progetto. Intanto qui l'articolo del China Daily: </span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><a href="http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/business/2015-10/15/content_22191764.htm" target="_blank">http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/business/2015-10/15/content_22191764.htm </a></span></div>
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Giorgio Cuscitohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14965827718771456940noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8486477718764400497.post-25117420782877672142016-04-08T08:54:00.000+02:002016-04-08T09:06:10.028+02:00Scandalo e opportunità: la Cina e i Panama papers <div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: large;">Nei documenti dello scandalo finanziario più grande della storia figurano anche alcuni parenti di almeno 8 tra ex e attuali membri del Comitato permanente del politburo del Partito comunista cinese (Pcc). Tra questi c’è anche il cognato del presidente Xi Jinping. Il mio commento per <a href="http://www.limesonline.com/cina-panama-papers-wikileaks-icij-islanda-libia-ucraina/90902" style="font-family: inherit; text-align: justify;" target="_blank">Limes</a><span style="font-family: inherit; text-align: justify;">.</span>
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<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;">Pechino ha censurato i contenuti riguardanti strettamente l’élite mandarina. Il quotidiano <a href="https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=http-3A__www.globaltimes.cn_content_977162.shtml&d=CwMFaQ&c=tUIXUh5BJuGeCwZVj7ChnbhB_cIdD6lQgMfidODHLEk&r=8ttJZ1GHeOrGX75V5mpCaqETQMleZb89WJEg4Ni4kjM&m=yKMT4rHIy1XtCp68YOCQCxsXlW7fikwq1NN86hpsbss&s=qz75BRrKqwbiXgPgFFqOK3t5Y_m_eEM4CZfhk4GgUyQ&e=" style="max-width: 100%; text-decoration: none;"><em style="max-width: 100%;">Global Times</em></a> ha pubblicato un articolo in cui afferma che dietro ai Panama Papers vi sono “forze potenti”, che i media occidentali prendono il controllo di queste informazioni ogni volta che sono divulgati simili documenti e che Washington esercita una “particolare influenza”. L’articolo non menziona però il coinvolgimento dei parenti di membri del Pcc nello scandalo.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;">Il portavoce del ministero degli Esteri cinese Hong Lei ha liquidato la questione come “priva di fondamento”, ma il suo commento non è menzionato nella sintesi della conferenza stampa di martedì 5 aprile.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;">Non è la prima volta che le ricchezze dei politici cinesi e dei loro familiari sono rese note da giornalisti occidentali. Per esempio si veda <a href="https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=http-3A__www.bloomberg.com_news_articles_2012-2D06-2D29_xi-2Djinping-2Dmillionaire-2Drelations-2Dreveal-2Dfortunes-2Dof-2Delite&d=CwMFaQ&c=tUIXUh5BJuGeCwZVj7ChnbhB_cIdD6lQgMfidODHLEk&r=8ttJZ1GHeOrGX75V5mpCaqETQMleZb89WJEg4Ni4kjM&m=yKMT4rHIy1XtCp68YOCQCxsXlW7fikwq1NN86hpsbss&s=4r1zpFrOb1K2NW3nQyqPg181FnBZK49NsrUqkpQcTbo&e=" style="max-width: 100%; text-decoration: none;">l’inchiesta di <em style="max-width: 100%;">Bloomberg</em></a> del 2012 sulle ricchezze della famiglia di Xi.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;">La presenza dell’architetto francese Patrick Devillers nei Panama Papers potrebbe far luce sull’<a href="http://www.limesonline.com/rubrica/cina-anche-un-omicidio-nel-giallo-di-bo-xilai" style="max-width: 100%; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">assassinio</a> avvenuto nel 2011 dell’uomo d’affari britannico Neil Heywood per mano di Gu Kailai, moglie dell’ex capo del partito a Chongqing <a href="http://www.limesonline.com/rubrica/wen-bo-xilai-e-la-cina-che-verra" style="max-width: 100%; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">Bo Xilai</a>.</span></div>
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<span style="color: black; font-family: inherit; font-size: large;"><a href="https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=https-3A__panamapapers.icij.org_20160406-2Dchina-2Dred-2Dnobility-2Doffshore-2Ddealings.html&d=CwMFaQ&c=tUIXUh5BJuGeCwZVj7ChnbhB_cIdD6lQgMfidODHLEk&r=8ttJZ1GHeOrGX75V5mpCaqETQMleZb89WJEg4Ni4kjM&m=yKMT4rHIy1XtCp68YOCQCxsXlW7fikwq1NN86hpsbss&s=s8hsiSnawb-hyMq0sdKJPwhKAs55aKk_Gik5XP5v0yw&e=" style="max-width: 100%; text-decoration: none;">Secondo l’Icij</a>, l’organizzazione giornalistica che ha diffuso i documenti, Heywood ha probabilmente minacciato Gu di rivelare informazioni riguardo una compagnia alle isole Vergini da lei utilizzata per coprire il possesso di una villa nel Sud della Francia.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;">Stando ai documenti divulgati da Icij, pochi giorni dopo la morte di Heywood la proprietà delle azioni della società di Gu è stata trasferita a Devillers, probabilmente per nascondere il movente dell’omicidio. Ciò non è bastato per impedire il <a href="http://www.limesonline.com/cartaceo/house-of-cards-affascina-la-cina" style="max-width: 100%; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">declino di Bo</a> e della moglie, ora entrambi in carcere.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;">Al di là di questo episodio, Pechino teme evidentemente che i Panama Papers possano danneggiare l’immagine del Pcc e del presidente. Da due anni Xi è impegnato in una rigorosa campagna anticorruzione per colpire i funzionari corrotti nel partito e nelle Forze armate (tra gli ultimi vi è <a href="https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=http-3A__www.scmp.com_news_china_policies-2Dpolitics_article_1933524_man-2Dwho-2Dran-2Dworlds-2Dlargest-2Darmy-2Dcharged-2Dtaking-2Dus123-3Futm-5Fsource-3DThe-2520Sinocism-2520China-2520Newsletter-26utm-5Fcampaign-3Db1a25305ec-2DSinocism04-5F06-5F164-5F6-5F2016-26utm-5Fmedium-3Demail-26utm-5Fterm-3D0-5F171f2&d=CwMFaQ&c=tUIXUh5BJuGeCwZVj7ChnbhB_cIdD6lQgMfidODHLEk&r=8ttJZ1GHeOrGX75V5mpCaqETQMleZb89WJEg4Ni4kjM&m=yKMT4rHIy1XtCp68YOCQCxsXlW7fikwq1NN86hpsbss&s=1PWFnSuJ0OLXBlTZkiHug1W24CCNEQs6wgsgyL6vRKc&e=" style="max-width: 100%; text-decoration: none;">l’ex generale Guo Boxiong</a>) e neutralizzare i suoi avversari politici.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;">Alla luce di ciò non è da escludere che la Commissione centrale per l’ispezione disciplinare del Pcc stia analizzando attentamente i documenti trafugati per capire se possano essere utilizzati nell’ambito della campagna anticorruzione, trasformando lo scandalo in un’opportunità.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large; max-width: 100%;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;">Per approfondire:</strong></span></div>
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<span style="color: black; font-family: inherit; font-size: large;"><a href="http://www.limesonline.com/cartaceo/house-of-cards-affascina-la-cina" style="max-width: 100%; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">House of Cards affascina la Cina</a>, <em style="max-width: 100%;">di G. Cuscito</em></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;">La famosa serie televisiva <em style="max-width: 100%;">made in Usa</em> è seguita da milioni di cinesi. I media fedeli al governo di Pechino la presentano come il riflesso della corruzione nella politica americana, ma ai più ricorda le lotte interne al Partito comunista in corso nella Repubblica Popolare.</span></div>
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<span style="color: black; font-family: inherit; font-size: large;"><a href="http://www.limesonline.com/cartaceo/viva-i-paradisi-fiscali" style="max-width: 100%; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">Viva i paradisi fiscali!</a>, <em style="max-width: 100%;">di C. Stagnaro</em> [2009]</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;">La demonizzazione degli ‘<em style="max-width: 100%;">uncooperative tax havens</em>’ esprime la competizione fra gli inferni occidentali ad alta fiscalità e alcuni piccoli Stati, ben amministrati, a bassa fiscalità. Il caso delle Isole Cayman e quello del Delaware. La retromarcia di Obama.</span></div>
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Giorgio Cuscitohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14965827718771456940noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8486477718764400497.post-89986318433995272382016-03-30T12:15:00.000+02:002016-04-01T14:57:59.974+02:00Come Pechino potrebbe monitorare le masse in Cina grazie a Baidu<div style="text-align: justify;">
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgXj4h2u2_6os4lXoTrBPrXaFKdg9zSryJ3ec2zpPl-L5ApQY0noTHL_pGW4MqwX07OHTFbBuGvnjev2ZN3nbecFzFzza6Drla_PqHn2t1hTvi-wHeWrWIeuGrjHE2S9VuADxM7KpVIYTg/s1600/Schermata+2016-03-29+alle+16.17.53.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="419" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgXj4h2u2_6os4lXoTrBPrXaFKdg9zSryJ3ec2zpPl-L5ApQY0noTHL_pGW4MqwX07OHTFbBuGvnjev2ZN3nbecFzFzza6Drla_PqHn2t1hTvi-wHeWrWIeuGrjHE2S9VuADxM7KpVIYTg/s640/Schermata+2016-03-29+alle+16.17.53.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">La densità demografica a Shanghai il 31/12/2014, quando 35 persone sono morte durante i festeggiamenti per capodanno a causa della ressa. Fonte: http://arxiv.org/pdf/1603.06780v1.pdf </td></tr>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Il gigante di Internet cinese Baidu <a href="http://blogs.wsj.com/chinarealtime/2016/03/23/crowd-control-baidu-has-an-algorithm-for-that/" target="_blank">ha sviluppato</a> un algoritmo per prevedere il formarsi di grandi assembramenti di persone. Secondo lo <a href="http://arxiv.org/pdf/1603.06780v1.pdf" target="_blank">studio</a> del Baidu Big Data Lab, aggregando i dati cercati dagli utenti sulle sezione mappe dell'omonimo browser si può stabilire dove e quando una folla di persone si riunirà nel giro di 3 ore. </span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;">L'unità di analisi ha infatti</span><span style="font-size: large;"> riscontrato una forte correlazione tra il numero di <i>query</i> per uno specifico luogo geografico e il numero di individui che si dirigono verso esso. </span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;">In tale contesto è importante sottolineare che a</span><span style="font-size: large;"> giugno 2015, la Cina <a href="http://www1.cnnic.cn/IDR/ReportDownloads/201601/P020160106496544403584.pdf" target="_blank">ha registrato</a> 66</span><span style="font-size: large;">8 milioni di utenti di Internet, di cui l'88.9% se ne serve tramite cellulare. </span></span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;">Baidu ha cominciato a lavorare a questo progetto dopo che a Shanghai 35 persone sono morte durante i festeggiamenti di capodanno 2015, schiacciate nella ressa. L'algoritmo servirebbe per sviluppare un sistema di allarme preventivo e impedire il verificarsi di simili disastri. </span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Quello di Baidu è al momento solo un paper accademico. Tuttavia, viene da chiedersi se in via ipotetica</span><span style="font-size: large;"> questo meccanismo possa essere utilizzato per monitorare e prevenire anche i cosiddetti</span><span style="font-size: large;"> "incidenti di massa" (termine piuttosto vago per indicare proteste legate a diritto del lavoro, questioni etniche, inquinamento, demolizioni forzate eccetera) di cui si sta registrando negli ultimi anni un aumento considerevole. </span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;">Secondo <a href="http://maps.clb.org.hk/strikes/en" target="_blank">il China Labour Bulletin</a>, organizzazione di base a Hong Kong, lo scorso gennaio <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/strikes-and-workers-protests-multiply-in-china-testing-party-authority/2016/02/24/caba321c-b3c8-11e5-8abc-d09392edc612_story.html" target="_blank">si sono verificati</a> 503 scioperi, poco meno di quelli registrati tra il 2011 e il 2012 (567). </span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;">E' noto che Pechino teme simili episodi perché possono minacciare la stabilità del paese e quindi la sovranità del Partito comunista. </span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">La Cina inoltre ha riscontrato un rallentamento del tasso di crescita del pil (che oscilla tra il 6.5 e il 7%) e sta entrando in una delicata fase di transizione da economia basata sull'export a una poggiata sui consumi interni. La società cinese affronterà con fatica questo cambiamento e non è da escludere che le manifestazioni di protesta tendano ad aumentare.</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;">L'algoritmo di Baidu potrebbe diventare un'arma in più per prevenirli.</span></div>
Giorgio Cuscitohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14965827718771456940noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8486477718764400497.post-37824121606205131792016-03-26T11:34:00.000+01:002016-03-26T11:34:11.703+01:00Perché anche la Cina fa rotta per l'Artico <div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;">La mia analisi <a href="http://www.aspeninstitute.it/aspenia-online/article/perch%C3%A9-anche-la-cina-fa-rotta-l%E2%80%99artico" target="_blank">per Aspenia</a> sugli interessi di Pechino in questa regione.</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjIaBEj3mMRJViGyWa95Lz5Nz_w7jehoDIEyId6FluLw33sRBI1-tP9VECIwZFVOXOvuhvMqFGLQikMnUfdm2hHTzbR0Emt9H_oIOXPWIqB4bK3WHeMnqQj7ZCTDa8-USBClqREzPH0LNg/s1600/20140712_CNM905.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="397" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjIaBEj3mMRJViGyWa95Lz5Nz_w7jehoDIEyId6FluLw33sRBI1-tP9VECIwZFVOXOvuhvMqFGLQikMnUfdm2hHTzbR0Emt9H_oIOXPWIqB4bK3WHeMnqQj7ZCTDa8-USBClqREzPH0LNg/s400/20140712_CNM905.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;">La Cina si è interessata all’Artico fin dai primi decenni del 1900, ma solo recentemente ha cominciato ad attuare in questa parte di mondo una strategia di ampio respiro. Ciò dipende da diversi fattori: la presenza di grandi risorse energetiche e minerarie; lo sviluppo di nuove rotte commerciali agevolate dal progressivo scioglimento dei ghiacci; la ricerca scientifica; il commercio ittico. I tratti salienti della politica cinese in questa regione vanno inseriti anche nel contesto del recente abbassamento del prezzo del petrolio.</span></div>
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<em><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;">Uno Stato “quasi artico”</span></em></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;">La Cina si definisce uno Stato “vicino all’Artico” (<em>jin beiji guojia</em>), un importante “stakeholder” <em>(</em><em>lihai guanxi guo)</em> in questa parte di mondo. Eppure la regione dista dai suoi confini circa 1.600 chilometri e Pechino non ha ancora prodotto un documento ufficiale che illustri la sua politica in merito. Ciò significa che ad oggi l’Artico non figura ai primi posti nell’agenda di politica estera cinese. Eppure, nella Repubblica Popolare questo dossier è affrontato spesso e in modo approfondito dai politici, dai media e dai centri di ricerca. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;">L’inizio delle attività cinesi nell’Artico risale al 1925, quando il paese è entrato a far parte dell’Accordo di Svalbard, che consente a Pechino di pescare e condurre attività commerciali nell’omonimo arcipelago (sotto sovranità norvegese). Nel 2013 la Repubblica Popolare ha assunto lo status di “osservatore permanente” presso il Consiglio artico, il forum internazionale per la cooperazione nella regione, di cui sono membri Stati Uniti, Russia, Canada, Norvegia, Danimarca, Svezia, Islanda e Finlandia. I partecipanti a pieno titolo hanno l’opportunità di concordare le politiche regionali, privilegio che gli osservatori permanenti (in totale 12, compresa l’Italia) non hanno. La presenza della Cina nel Consiglio le consente comunque di sfruttare sia il contesto multilaterale sia quello bilaterale per condurre attività diplomatiche e commerciali di rilievo.</span></div>
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<em><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;">A caccia di energia</span></em></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;">Secondo il <a href="http://www.usgs.gov/newsroom/article.asp?ID=1980#.VtakE8eajVh" style="text-decoration: none;">US Geological Survey</a>, nell’Artico vi sarebbero circa il 13 % del petrolio, il 30% del gas naturale e il 20% del gas naturale liquefatto (Gnl) inesplorati ma tecnicamente estraibili al mondo. Circa l’84% di queste risorse stimate dovrebbero trovarsi <em>offshore</em>.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;">L’abbassamento del prezzo del petrolio degli ultimi mesi ha però reso l’estrazione del greggio nella regione meno conveniente che altrove. Secondo uno <a href="http://www2.deloitte.com/uk/en/pages/energy-and-resources/articles/crude-awakening.html" style="text-decoration: none;">studio di Deloitte</a> il costo medio di estrazione del petrolio nell’Artico (su cui pesano le difficili condizioni climatiche e le tecnologie necessarie) è oggi di 75 dollari al barile ($/b), circa il triplo di quello necessario per la medesima attività in Medio Oriente (27 $/b). Quindi, perché sia conveniente operare in questa parte di mondo, il suo prezzo dovrebbe aggirarsi intorno ai 100 $/b. Non a caso negli ultimi mesi la Shell in Alaska e la Statoil in Norvegia hanno deciso di interrompere alcune delle loro attività. Il Direttorato petrolifero norvegese, l’organo regolatore dell’industria petrolifera nazionale, ha affermato che la produzione di greggio e gas in questo paese <a href="http://www.npd.no/en/Topics/Resource-accounts-and--analysis/Temaartikler/Norwegian-shelf-in-numbers-maps-and-figures1/Petroleum-production/" style="text-decoration: none;">calerà</a> gradualmente fino al 2019.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;">La Cina è allo stesso tempo il quarto più grande produttore e il primo importatore di petrolio al mondo. Le sue riserve non bastano per soddisfare la domanda interna e la sua crescita (pur rallentata rispetto agli ultimi anni), pertanto importa quantità ingenti d’idrocarburi dall’estero, <em>in primis</em> daglle instabili regioni del Medio Oriente e dell’Africa subsahariana. L’abbassamento del prezzo del petrolio favorisce lo <em>shopping</em> energetico della Cina, ma danneggia i suoi investimenti nell’Artico.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;">L’azienda petrolifera China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), ad esempio, non sta ottenendo i profitti sperati dopo l’acquisizione (nel 2011, per 2.2 miliardi di dollari) dell’omologa canadese Daylight Energy e pertanto ne ha ridotto le trivellazioni a pochi siti strategici. Sinopec detiene anche il 9% di Syncrude Canada, la cui la produzione al momento languisce, e il 49% della canadese Talisman Energy. Nel 2013, inoltre, la China National Offshore Oil Corp (Cnooc) aveva acquisito l’azienda energetica canadese Nexen, il cui bilancio era in rosso per 15.1 miliardi di dollari. Dopo circa tre anni, la produzione energetica di questa compagnia è scarsa e l’investimento <a href="http://www.wsj.com/articles/how-china-slipped-on-canadas-oil-sands-1437616832" style="text-decoration: none;">non soddisfa</a> le esigenze cinesi. Nel 2014 la Cnooc è diventata anche la prima azienda del Dragone ad <a href="http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2014-03/04/content_17319366.htm" style="text-decoration: none;">ottenere</a>l’autorizzazione a cercare il petrolio nell’Artico. La compagnia aveva fatto domanda all’autorità islandese insieme alla Eykon Energy e alla Petoro Iceland. Pechino ha sviluppato un ottimo <a href="http://thediplomat.com/2015/05/china-iceland-and-the-arctic/" style="text-decoration: none;">rapporto con l’Islanda</a>, che ha un ruolo importante nella trasformazione istituzionale della regione. Questo paese è stato nel 2013 il primo nell’Artico (e nell’Ue) ad aver finalizzato un accordo di libero scambio con la Cina. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;">In sostanza, le potenzialità energetiche della regione, il cambiamento climatico, la possibile riduzione dei costi tecnologici futuri e le necessità di lungo periodo cinesi spingono Pechino ad assicurarsi un ruolo di primo piano nella regione a prescindere dalle attuali oscillazioni del mercato del greggio.</span></div>
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<em><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;">Una via della seta artica?</span></em></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;">Gli interessi cinesi non riguardano solo l’energia. Lo scioglimento dei ghiacci permetterà a Pechino di sviluppare nuove vie commerciali per raggiungere l’Europa. Il gigante dei trasporti marittimi China Cosco Holdings Company Limited pianifica di lanciare la prima tratta “regolare” Asia-Europa attraverso la Rotta marittima del Nord. Questa è lunga 8.100 miglia nautiche, passa dal Mare di Kara, procede lungo la costa settentrionale della Russia e arriva fino all’Oceano Pacifico attraverso lo Stretto di Bering. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;">Seguendo la Rotta marittima del Nord anziché servirsi del Canale di Suez, le navi cargo impiegherebbero circa 15 giorni in meno per andare da Shanghai a Rotterdam. Il tragitto al momento <a href="http://www.wsj.com/articles/chinese-shipper-cosco-to-schedule-regular-trans-arctic-sailings-1446133485" style="text-decoration: none;">è percorribile</a> solo tra luglio e novembre, ovvero i mesi più caldi. <a href="http://thebarentsobserver.com/industry/2016/02/historical-low-northern-sea-route" style="text-decoration: none;">Nel 2015, anche a causa del rallentamento economico globale, solo 40mila tonnellate di merci</a> hanno seguito questa via e il 75% è stata trasportato dai cinesi. Si tratta di un calo netto dai dati del 2012 e nel 2013, quando il volume era stato di circa 1.35 milioni di tonnellate. Ad ogni modo, nel 2030, quando lo scioglimento dei ghiacci dovrebbe ampliare ulteriormente lo spazio di transito delle navi, i volumi di spedizione dovrebbero raggiungere gli 80 milioni di tonnellate. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;">In tale contesto le relazioni sino-russe hanno un ruolo importante. Come è noto, la crisi ucraina e l’antagonismo con gli Stati Uniti hanno spinto Mosca a riavvicinarsi a Pechino. I due governi hanno sancito questa collaborazione – che difficilmente si tradurrà però in vera alleanza – con una serie di accordi energetici. Pechino considera la rotta marittima del Nord “la soluzione più economica” per commerciare con il Vecchio Continente e Mosca ha chiesto ufficialmente di partecipare al suo sviluppo. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;">La rotta marittima del Nord è rilevante anche alla luce del progetto infrastrutturale e commerciale “Una cintura, una via” (<em>Yidai, yilu</em>) lanciato dal presidente cinese Xi Jinping nel 2013. Questo, ispirato alle antiche vie della Seta, raggiungerà l’Europa per terra (attraversando Asia Centrale e Medio Oriente) e per mare (passando lo Stretto di Malacca, toccando l’India e il Kenya per poi immettersi nel Mar Mediterraneo). Non è da escludere che in futuro Pechino decida di sviluppare una “via della seta artica”, per abbracciare a Nord e a Sud il continente eurasiatico.</span></div>
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<em><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;">Cambiamento climatico e ricerca scientifica</span></em></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;">Nell’Artico la Repubblica Popolare è impegnata infine a livello scientifico perché ritiene che gli effetti negativi che il cambiamento climatico hanno sulla regione si ripercuotano sul proprio clima, sulla produzione agricola nazionale e potenzialmente sullo sviluppo sociale ed economico. Tra il 1985 e il 2012, nell’Artico l’Impero di Mezzo (tradotto più esattamente "Impero di Centro") ha dato via a 5 spedizioni. Nel 2004 l’Istituto per la ricerca polare cinese ha istituito la stazione artica “Fiume Giallo” (Huanghe zhan) sulle isole norvegesi Svalbard per condurre ricerche scientifiche. Cina e Russia inoltre intendono condurre la loro prima spedizione congiunta nella regione a breve, con l’obiettivo di mappare le profondità artiche per conoscerne la composizione chimica e fisica.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;">Per approfondire la questione del cambiamento climatico nella regione, i rappresentanti cinesi prendono parte a diversi comitati, tra cui le conferenze Arctic Frontiers a Tromsø (Norvegia) e Arctic Circle a Reykjavík (Islanda). In questo quadro promuovono soprattutto l’agenda cinese di sostenibilità ambientale.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;">L’approccio multisettoriale della Cina nella regione è piuttosto pubblicizzato dai media nazionali. Pechino vuole infatti abituare i cittadini al coinvolgimento del paese in questa parte di mondo in vista di un crescente impegno futuro. Inoltre, la Cina spera che tale strategia le fornisca maggiore voce in capitolo sui dossier energetici e commerciali e che contribuisca a rafforzare la sua immagine come potenza globale sul piano politico, economico e militare agli occhi del resto del mondo.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;">I rapporti tra i paesi artici (per esempio Russia, Danimarca, Norvegia, Canada, Stati Uniti) sono segnati da alcune dispute territoriali. Per motivi geografici, al momento la Cina non interviene su tale argomento, promuove genericamente i princìpi della cooperazione pacifica e respinge le accuse secondo cui le sue attività potrebbero modificare lo status quo nell’Artico. Alla luce dei molteplici interessi di una potenza con aspirazioni globali, il ruolo cinese nella regione è quasi certamente destinato a crescere.</span></div>
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Giorgio Cuscitohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14965827718771456940noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8486477718764400497.post-15610499389242543812016-03-24T11:12:00.003+01:002016-03-24T12:50:38.130+01:00Le reazioni della Cina dopo Bruxelles <div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: large;">Il mio commento <a href="http://www.limesonline.com/il-mondo-dopo-bruxelles/90529" target="_blank">per Limes</a> sulla reazione della Repubblica popolare dopo gli attentati avvenuti in Belgio. </span></div>
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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: small;">L'articolo di <i>Huanqiu</i>. Il titolo dice: "L'attacco di Bruxelles evidenzia le vulnerabilità dell'Europa". Fonte: http://opinion.huanqiu.com/editorial/2016-03/8752878.html</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;">All’indomani dei fatti di Bruxelles, <a href="http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/world/2016-03/23/content_24030715.htm" style="color: #416ed2; max-width: 100%; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">Pechino</a> e i cittadini cinesi – questi ultimi attraverso <a href="http://www.limesonline.com/cartaceo/twitter-in-cinese-si-dice-weibo" style="color: #416ed2; max-width: 100%; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">Weibo, il Twitter cinese</a> – hanno espresso il loro <a href="http://passport.weibo.com/visitor/visitor?entry=miniblog&a=enter&url=http%3A%2F%2Fweibo.com%2Fp%2F1008081945eec1eab04d92135c9fd75d1ac9c9%3Fk%3D%25E5%25B8%2583%25E9%25B2%2581%25E5%25A1%259E%25E5%25B0%2594%25E6%259C%25BA%25E5%259C%25BA%25E7%2588%2586%25E7%2582%25B8%26from%3D501%26_from_%3Dhuati_topic&domain=.weibo.com&ua=php-sso_sdk_client-0.6.16&_rand=1458741261.0625" style="color: #416ed2; max-width: 100%; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">cordoglio</a>. Ad ogni modo la reazione più interessante proviene dai media nazionali.
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<span style="font-size: large;">Il sito del giornale <em style="max-width: 100%;"><a href="http://opinion.huanqiu.com/editorial/2016-03/8752878.html" style="color: #416ed2; max-width: 100%; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">Huanqiu</a></em>, legato al Partito comunista, ha sottolineato che l’Europa “non sembra preparata a gestire la minaccia terroristica” e che malgrado il Belgio fosse a conoscenza di un’imminente minaccia non è stata in grado di prendere le dovute contromisure. L’articolo afferma che “il fronte antiterrorismo europeo è una cosa astratta” e che il “terrore sta spingendo l’Europa verso uno scontro di civiltà”. Curiosamente, nella <a href="http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/975400.shtml" style="color: #416ed2; max-width: 100%; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">sintesi in inglese</a> del pezzo, l’ultima frase è stato tradotta come “il terrore sta spingendo la civiltà europea verso una pericolosa fine”.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><em style="max-width: 100%;">Huanqiu</em> ha colto l’occasione per rimarcare le responsabilità degli Stati Uniti nel propagarsi della minaccia jihadista nel mondo: dopo l’11 settembre gli Usa sono riusciti a “spingere la minaccia terroristica fuori dai propri confini, hanno generato problemi in Medio Oriente, distrutto l’architettura di questa regione e intensificato le tensioni tra sciiti e sunniti”. Questo concetto, cui evidentemente Pechino vuole dare un riverbero mondiale, è espresso in entrambe le lingue.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">La versione cinese dell’articolo – a differenza di quella in inglese – sottolinea anche che i media occidentali hanno adottato un doppio standard di valutazione nel parlare della minaccia jihadista di <a href="http://www.limesonline.com/cartaceo/la-cina-e-lossimoro-turco" style="color: #416ed2; max-width: 100%; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">matrice uigura nel Xinjiang</a>, contro cui Pechino ha lanciato una <a href="http://www.limesonline.com/la-cina-la-campagna-antiterrorismo-nel-xinjiang-e-il-rischio-boomerang/76227" style="color: #416ed2; max-width: 100%; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">dura campagna antiterrorismo</a>.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">È evidente che il messaggio che la stampa rivolge ai cittadini cinesi attiene in misura maggiore ai problemi di natura interna e che il contenuto dell’articolo cambia, seppur sottilmente, a seconda del lettore di riferimento.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Per ammorbidire i toni in merito al rapporto con l’Occidente, l’articolo in entrambe le lingue conclude sottolineando che il terrorismo “può essere il più grande nemico” del mondo e che per questo andrebbe preso di petto.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large; max-width: 100%;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;">Per approfondire:</strong></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">DAL NUOVO NUMERO <a href="http://www.limesonline.com/cartaceo/la-cina-e-lossimoro-turco" style="color: #416ed2; max-width: 100%; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">La Cina e l’ossimoro turco</a>, <em style="max-width: 100%;">di G. Cuscito</em></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Pechino non si fida di Ankara per il suo legame con gli uiguri, ma il paese della Mezzaluna è uno snodo fondamentale lungo le vie della seta. Con gli investimenti, Xi può convincere Erdoğan a cooperare per prevenire il terrorismo di ritorno dal Siraq.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><a href="http://www.limesonline.com/cartaceo/la-partita-del-xinjiang-fra-terrorismo-uiguro-e-nuove-vie-della-seta" style="color: #416ed2; max-width: 100%; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">La partita del Xinjiang fra terrorismo uiguro e vie della seta</a>, <em style="max-width: 100%;">di G. Cuscito e F. Petroni</em></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">L’intensificarsi degli attentati attribuiti a gruppi della minoranza musulmana mina la stabilità e il ruolo di hub energetico della ‘Nuova frontiera’ cinese. La centralità della regione per i collegamenti con l’Europa. Preoccupazioni e ambiguità della Russia.</span></div>
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Giorgio Cuscitohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14965827718771456940noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8486477718764400497.post-33951450609842239922016-03-22T09:47:00.000+01:002016-03-22T10:09:29.482+01:00I media cinesi contro Xi<span style="font-size: large;">Il mio commento <a href="http://www.limesonline.com/migranti-accordo-grecia-turchia-obama-cuba-notizie-oggi/90473#cnt4" target="_blank">per Limes</a> sul malcontento che trapela dai media cinesi in merito al consolidamento del controllo del Partito comunista - e del presidente Xi Jinping - sui media pochi giorni dopo l'importante visita del leader presso i principali organi di stampa legati al governo. </span><br />
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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small; text-align: left;">L'articolo di Caixin censurato (a sinistra) e quello con cui è stato sostituito (a destra). Fonte: https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgscDcZzpFUtEKR1yX3s0mS0uL4Ie9XwdAFyZMwsKEvgdsO9zk-FS_tbcogmvdPhQcv27cLmTeQuUZ1n5T7tuVZIMRDXgrV50nWv_CEc71Qg91tRVZd8zkZ76-Xi0s5qKAOMJFOrrfRZjc/s1600/Leaders-TwoMeetingsComplaintAboutCensorship-Caixin-20160308-13-Url.jpg </span></td></tr>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Alcuni episodi sembrano confermare un certo malcontento sui media cinesi a causa della morsa sempre più stretta del governo sulla stampa.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Primo episodio: la settimana scorsa il noto giornalista cinese Jia Jia (<a href="https://twitter.com/jajia" style="max-width: 100%; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">oltre 80 mila follower su Twitter</a>) è misteriosamente <a href="http://chinachange.org/2016/03/16/young-columnist-disappeared-in-beijing-believed-to-be-related-to-open-letter-to-xi-jinping/" style="max-width: 100%; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">scomparso</a> nell’aeroporto della capitale mentre prendeva un volo per Hong Kong. La vicenda sembra essere legata a una <a href="http://www.canyu.org/n110479c6.aspx" style="max-width: 100%; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">lettera aperta</a> pubblicata e poi rimossa sul sito <em style="max-width: 100%;"><a href="http://www.watching.cn/" style="max-width: 100%; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">Wujie</a></em> (<a href="http://news.sina.com.cn/m/2015-04-15/110931720058.shtml" style="max-width: 100%; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">fondato</a> dal dipartimento per la propaganda della provincia del Xinjiang, Alibaba e Seec Media Group) in cui anonimi “fedeli membri del Partito comunista” hanno chiesto al presidente Xi Jinping di dimettersi perché colpevole di aver accentrato eccessivamente il potere nelle sue mani.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"> L’avvocato di Jia Jia ha confermato che il suo assistito è stato portato via dalla polizia di Pechino.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Secondo episodio: nei giorni precedenti il governo avrebbe <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/mar/08/chinese-magazine-challenges-government-censorship-organ?utm_source=The+Sinocism+China+Newsletter&utm_campaign=99b5fcd449-The_Sinocism_China_Newsletter_03_16_163_16_2016&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_171f2" style="max-width: 100%; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">imposto</a> al giornale <em style="max-width: 100%;">Caixin</em> di rimuovere dal suo sito un’intervista a un importante accademico di Shanghai e consigliere del Partito dedicata alla libertà di parola in Cina. Il quotidiano allora ha deciso di pubblicare un altro colloquio con la medesima persona per commentare la vicenda. Anche questo secondo pezzo è stato censurato. </span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Terzo episodio: un giornalista dell’agenzia di stampa <em style="max-width: 100%;">Xinhua</em> avrebbe commesso un errore di battitura e <a href="http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:yFsilcEbHWoJ:finance.sina.com/bg/chinamkt/xinhuanet/20160313/00081424092.html+&cd=2&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=hk&" style="max-width: 100%; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">definito Xi “l’ultimo”</a> (<em style="max-width: 100%;">zuihou</em>) leader anziché il “più alto” (<em style="max-width: 100%;">zuigao</em>) in carica. L’articolo è stato immediatamente corretto, ma chiunque sappia scrivere al computer in cinese si domanda come questi abbia potuto confondere le due parole.
Un mese fa Xi Jinping si era recato presso le sedi di <em style="max-width: 100%;">Xinhua</em>, <em style="max-width: 100%;">Quotidiano del Popolo</em> e <em style="max-width: 100%;">Cctv</em>, i principali media legati al governo, e aveva rammentato loro di seguire la leadership del Partito, rifletterne la volontà ed esserne i portavoce. Evidentemente l’accentramento di potere da parte del presidente nel Pcc e nell’Esercito incontra delle resistenze interne.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">È probabile che il controllo dei media e la lotta alla corruzione (che Xi ha lanciato <a href="http://www.limesonline.com/le-9-sfide-della-cina-di-xi-nel-2016/88839" style="max-width: 100%; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">anche per sgominare i suoi avversari politici</a>) proseguano con maggiore intensità nei prossimi mesi. Il 19° Congresso nazionale del Partito, previsto per il 2017, si avvicina e il presidente non vuole certo arrivarvi vulnerabile.</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large; max-width: 100%;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;">Per approfondire:</strong></span></div>
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<span style="color: black; font-size: large;"><a href="http://www.limesonline.com/le-9-sfide-della-cina-di-xi-nel-2016/88839" style="max-width: 100%; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">Le 9 sfide della Cina di Xi Jinping</a>, <em style="max-width: 100%;">di G. Cuscito</em></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Una frase idiomatica cinese dice “la strada verso la felicità è disseminata di ostacoli”. Nel caso di Pechino, vanno dall’inquinamento alla corruzione, dal consolidamento del suo ruolo di potenza mondiale allo sviluppo del mercato interno. Per superarli, il presidente ha una strategia. Se produrrà i risultati sperati è tutto da vedere.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">DAL NUOVO NUMERO: <a href="http://www.limesonline.com/cartaceo/perche-pechino-non-vuole-la-guerra-con-gli-usa" style="max-width: 100%; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">Perché Pechino non vuole la guerra con gli Usa</a>, <em style="max-width: 100%;">di Mu C.</em></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Pechino considera lo sviluppo di relazioni pacifiche e paritarie con gli Stati Uniti fondamentale per continuare a crescere. Ma Washington non capisce quale direzione prenderà l’ascesa della Repubblica Popolare e ciò complica il rapporto bilaterale.</span></div>
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Giorgio Cuscitohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14965827718771456940noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8486477718764400497.post-67007550154803410362016-03-10T10:22:00.000+01:002016-03-10T10:22:04.552+01:00La bomba nordcoreana, le sanzioni cinesi<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: large;">Il mio commento per <a href="http://www.limesonline.com/chiusa-la-rotta-balcanica-gli-ostacoli-allaccordo-sui-migranti/90252#cnt3" target="_blank">Limes</a> sugli sviluppi degli ultimi giorni in merito alla Corea del Nord.</span></div>
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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: small;">Il leader della Corea del Nord Kim Jong Un. Fonte: <a href="http://www.vox.com/2016/3/9/11186964/north-korea-nuclear-warhead" target="_blank">Vox</a></span></td></tr>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Pyongyang ha nuovamente affermato di essere riuscita a miniaturizzare la bomba nucleare. Stavolta <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-nuclear-kim-idUSKCN0WA2QM" style="border: 0px; cursor: pointer; font-family: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">ad annunciarlo è stato direttamente il dittatore Kim Jong-un</a>. La notizia arriva non a caso mentre Usa e Corea del Sud conducono esercitazioni militari congiunte che simulano, tra le altre cose, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/in-drills-us-south-korea-practice-striking-norths-nuclear-plants/2016/03/06/46e6019d-5f04-4277-9b41-e02fc1c2e801_story.html" style="border: 0px; cursor: pointer; font-family: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">attacchi contro gli impianti nucleari nordcoreani</a>.</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;">La strategia di Kim è chiara: servirsi della forza bellica per legittimare la sua sovranità in patria e poter negoziare i necessari aiuti economici e alimentari stranieri da una posizione di forza.</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;">La Cina storce il naso e sembra realmente intenzionata ad applicare le più rigide sanzioni previste dalla risoluzione 2270 del Consiglio di sicurezza Onu, adottata (con il consenso cinese) in seguito al <a href="http://www.limesonline.com/la-lucida-follia-atomica-della-corea-del-nord/88897" style="border: 0px; cursor: pointer; font-family: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">quarto test nucleare</a> condotto dalla Corea del Nord a inizio anno.</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;">Pechino <a href="https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=http-3A__www.dailynk.com_english_read.php-3Fnum-3D13784-26cataId-3Dnk01500&d=CwMFaQ&c=tUIXUh5BJuGeCwZVj7ChnbhB_cIdD6lQgMfidODHLEk&r=8ttJZ1GHeOrGX75V5mpCaqETQMleZb89WJEg4Ni4kjM&m=e9oabHM1fpREYeU7q_GGuDB31M5jCxSd2XJ4OOW5fz0&s=_XApME7Xalty4qM-MOalFs8ZtZNDrDl7zGtgaQoAH5k&e=" style="border: 0px; cursor: pointer; font-family: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">avrebbe infatti interrotto</a> dal 1° marzo le importazioni di carbone e altri minerali dal paese di Kim. Inoltre, a febbraio la Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (Icbc), la più grande banca cinese, <a href="https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=http-3A__www.reuters.com_article_northkorea-2Dsatellite-2Dchina-2Dbanks-2DidUSL3N16114N&d=CwMFaQ&c=tUIXUh5BJuGeCwZVj7ChnbhB_cIdD6lQgMfidODHLEk&r=8ttJZ1GHeOrGX75V5mpCaqETQMleZb89WJEg4Ni4kjM&m=e9oabHM1fpREYeU7q_GGuDB31M5jCxSd2XJ4OOW5fz0&s=aX6Mfo_-usQt9Sul1GEWJ0pSxhlLJxkbI7dlQGMBiZQ&e=" style="border: 0px; cursor: pointer; font-family: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">ha congelato</a> i conti nordcoreani e la Cina <a href="https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=http-3A__english.yonhapnews.co.kr_national_2016_02_25_30_0301000000AEN20160225011000320F.html&d=CwMFaQ&c=tUIXUh5BJuGeCwZVj7ChnbhB_cIdD6lQgMfidODHLEk&r=8ttJZ1GHeOrGX75V5mpCaqETQMleZb89WJEg4Ni4kjM&m=e9oabHM1fpREYeU7q_GGuDB31M5jCxSd2XJ4OOW5fz0&s=dA_cXrlIHzs7AGtILSFRntEW1Mf7pHRL2mzAaWjkiIY&e=" style="border: 0px; cursor: pointer; font-family: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">avrebbe impedito</a> alle navi provenienti dalla Corea del Nord di contattare i suoi porti.</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;">Il regime di Kim dipende quasi interamente dalla Repubblica popolare in termini economici. Allo stesso tempo, la Corea del Nord rappresenta per Pechino uno Stato cuscinetto, che blocca sul 38° parallelo il contingente militare Usa dispiegato in Corea del Sud.</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;">La Cina (che riscontra anche <a href="https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=http-3A__opinion.huanqiu.com_editorial_2016-2D02_8536686.html&d=CwMFaQ&c=tUIXUh5BJuGeCwZVj7ChnbhB_cIdD6lQgMfidODHLEk&r=8ttJZ1GHeOrGX75V5mpCaqETQMleZb89WJEg4Ni4kjM&m=e9oabHM1fpREYeU7q_GGuDB31M5jCxSd2XJ4OOW5fz0&s=k0LwpF3w7yFYq9fQnaCXquEsAX6S_lxozPmiEyFeI7M&e=" style="border: 0px; cursor: pointer; font-family: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">il malcontento dei cittadini</a> verso Pyongyang) non vuole abbandonare l’alleato, ma comincia a stufarsi della sua eccessiva assertività. Per questo sta applicando le sanzioni. In sostanza, il presidente cinese Xi Jinping dice a Kim di non tirare la corda, ma il giovane dittatore al momento sembra non recepire.</span></div>
Giorgio Cuscitohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14965827718771456940noreply@blogger.com0